Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: State of the art and future vision
Members in ensemble forecasts differ due to the representations of initial uncertainties and
model uncertainties. The inclusion of stochastic schemes to represent model uncertainties …
model uncertainties. The inclusion of stochastic schemes to represent model uncertainties …
Stochastic weather and climate models
TN Palmer - Nature Reviews Physics, 2019 - nature.com
Although the partial differential equations that describe the physical climate system are
deterministic, there is an important reason why the computational representations of these …
deterministic, there is an important reason why the computational representations of these …
The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Looking back (more than) 25 years and projecting forward 25 years
T Palmer - Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological …, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
This paper has been written to mark 25 years of operational medium‐range ensemble
forecasting. The origins of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System are outlined, including …
forecasting. The origins of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System are outlined, including …
[图书][B] Statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts
Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by
international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical …
international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical …
[HTML][HTML] HarmonEPS—the HARMONIE ensemble prediction system
IL Frogner, ULF Andrae, J Bojarova… - Weather and …, 2019 - journals.ametsoc.org
HarmonEPS—The HARMONIE Ensemble Prediction System in: Weather and Forecasting
Volume 34 Issue 6 (2019) Jump to Content Jump to Main Navigation Logo Logo Logo Logo …
Volume 34 Issue 6 (2019) Jump to Content Jump to Main Navigation Logo Logo Logo Logo …
Revision of the stochastically perturbed parametrisations model uncertainty scheme in the integrated forecasting system
STK Lang, SJ Lock, M Leutbecher… - Quarterly Journal of …, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract The Stochastically Perturbed Parametrisations scheme (SPP) represents model
uncertainty in numerical weather prediction by introducing stochastic perturbations into the …
uncertainty in numerical weather prediction by introducing stochastic perturbations into the …
[HTML][HTML] Stochastic parameterization of processes leading to convective initiation in kilometer-scale models
Stochastic Parameterization of Processes Leading to Convective Initiation in Kilometer-Scale
Models in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 147 Issue 11 (2019) Jump to Content Jump to Main …
Models in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 147 Issue 11 (2019) Jump to Content Jump to Main …
[HTML][HTML] Uncertainty growth and forecast reliability during extratropical cyclogenesis
MJ Rodwell, H Wernli - Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2023 - wcd.copernicus.org
In global numerical weather prediction, the strongest contribution to ensemble variance
growth over the first few days is at synoptic scales. Hence it is particularly important to …
growth over the first few days is at synoptic scales. Hence it is particularly important to …
Stochastic methods and complexity science in climate research and modeling
The 2021 Nobel prize for physics was awarded to two climate scientists, Syukuro Manabe
and Klaus Hasselmann, and the physicist Giorgio Parisi. While at first sight the work of Parisi …
and Klaus Hasselmann, and the physicist Giorgio Parisi. While at first sight the work of Parisi …
An Update to the Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization Scheme of HarmonEPS
A Tsiringakis, IL Frogner, W De Rooy… - Monthly Weather …, 2024 - journals.ametsoc.org
High-resolution, limited-area forecasting is strongly affected by errors in the initial
atmospheric state, lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), and physical parameterizations used …
atmospheric state, lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), and physical parameterizations used …