This chapter reviews and synthesizes our current understanding of the shocks that drive
economic fluctuations. The chapter begins with an illustration of the problem of identifying …

This paper reviews Bayesian methods that have been developed in recent years to estimate
and evaluate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. We consider the …

This paper takes stock of what we have learned from the “Renaissance” in fiscal research in
the ten years since the financial crisis. I first discuss the new innovations in methodology and …

In the last three decades, the methods and conclusions of macroeconomics have
deteriorated to the point that much of the work in this area no longer qualifies as scientific …

The outcome of any important macroeconomic policy change is the net effect of forces
operating on different parts of the economy. A central challenge facing policymakers is how …

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have become one of the
workhorses of modern macroeconomics and are extensively used for academic research as …

Abstract The Great Recession seems to be a natural experiment for economic analysis, in
that it has shown the inadequacy of the predominant theoretical framework-the New …

Innovations to consumer confidence convey incremental information about economic activity
far into the future. Does this reflect a causal effect of animal spirits on economic activity, or …

Since the survey by Windrum et al.(Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 10: 8,
2007), research on empirical validation of agent-based models in economics has made …

Modelling the economics of climate change is daunting. Many existing methodologies from
social and physical sciences need to be deployed, and new modelling techniques and ideas …