[PDF][PDF] The supply of motivated beliefs
M Thaler - arXiv preprint arXiv:2111.06062, 2021 - aeaweb.org
When people choose what messages to send to others, they often consider how others will
interpret the messages. In many environments, particularly in politics, people are motivated …
interpret the messages. In many environments, particularly in politics, people are motivated …
Hard-to-interpret signals
LG Epstein, Y Halevy - Journal of the European Economic …, 2024 - academic.oup.com
Decisions under uncertainty are often made with information whose interpretation is
uncertain because multiple interpretations are possible. Individuals may perceive and …
uncertain because multiple interpretations are possible. Individuals may perceive and …
Ellsberg meets Keynes at an urn
Keynes (1921) and Ellsberg (1961) have articulated an aversion toward betting on an urn
containing balls of two colors of unknown proportion to one with a 50–50 composition …
containing balls of two colors of unknown proportion to one with a 50–50 composition …
[图书][B] Difficult decisions
We investigate the problem of identifying incomplete preferences in the domain of
uncertainty by proposing an incentive-compatible mechanism that bounds the behavior that …
uncertainty by proposing an incentive-compatible mechanism that bounds the behavior that …
Revealing choice bracketing
A Ellis, DJ Freeman - American Economic Review, 2024 - pubs.aeaweb.org
Experiments suggest that people fail to take into account interdependencies between their
choices—they do not broadly bracket. Researchers often instead assume people narrowly …
choices—they do not broadly bracket. Researchers often instead assume people narrowly …
Learning from unknown information sources
Y Liang - Management Science, 2024 - pubsonline.informs.org
When an agent receives information from a source whose accuracy might be either high or
low, standard theory dictates that she update as if the source has medium accuracy. In a …
low, standard theory dictates that she update as if the source has medium accuracy. In a …
[HTML][HTML] A test of (weak) certainty independence
C König-Kersting, C Kops, ST Trautmann - Journal of Economic Theory, 2023 - Elsevier
We provide a test of the axioms of certainty and weak certainty independence in models of
decision-making under subjective uncertainty. We show that it is through these two …
decision-making under subjective uncertainty. We show that it is through these two …
Experimental elicitation of ambiguity attitude using the random incentive system
We demonstrate how the standard usage of the random incentive system in ambiguity
experiments eliciting certainty and probability equivalents might not be incentive compatible …
experiments eliciting certainty and probability equivalents might not be incentive compatible …
Ambiguity, randomization and the timing of resolution of uncertainty
B Monet, V Vergopoulos - Economic Theory, 2024 - Springer
The classic framework of Anscombe and Aumann (Ann Math Stat 34: 199–205, 1963) for
decision-making under uncertainty postulates both a primary source of uncertainty (the …
decision-making under uncertainty postulates both a primary source of uncertainty (the …