Economic uncertainty (EU) has received greater attention in recent years Based on media
data, this research applies the Latent Dirichlet Allocation method to create a new provincial …

Volatility has been one of the most active and successful areas of research in time series
econometrics and economic forecasting in recent decades. This chapter provides a selective …

We develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on newspaper
coverage frequency. Several types of evidence—including human readings of 12,000 …

This paper examines the effect of economic policy uncertainty and its components on firm-
level investment. It is found that economic policy uncertainty in interaction with firm-level …

This paper uses survey expectations data to construct empirical proxies for time-varying
business-level uncertainty. Access to the micro data from the German IFO Business Climate …

We investigate the role of uncertainty in business cycles. First, we demonstrate that
microeconomic uncertainty rises sharply during recessions, including during the Great …

This paper provides a comprehensive survey of existing measures of uncertainty, risk, and
volatility, noting their conceptual distinctions. It summarizes how they are constructed, their …

This chapter discusses recent developments in inflation forecasting. We perform a horse-
race among a large set of traditional and recently developed forecasting methods, and …

Economists commonly suppose that persons have probabilistic expectations for uncertain
events, yet empirical research measuring expectations was long rare. The inhibition against …

We study the economic sources of stock-bond return comovements and their time variation
using a dynamic factor model. We identify the economic factors employing a semi structural …