This chapter reviews and synthesizes our current understanding of the shocks that drive
economic fluctuations. The chapter begins with an illustration of the problem of identifying …

This paper uses survey expectations data to construct empirical proxies for time-varying
business-level uncertainty. Access to the micro data from the German IFO Business Climate …

This paper proposes and implements a novel structural VAR approach to the identification of
news shocks about future technology. The news shock is identified as the shock orthogonal …

Yes. We construct a measure of aggregate technology change, controlling for aggregation
effects, varying utilization of capital and labor, nonconstant returns, and imperfect …

The origins of business cycles are still controversial among macroeconomists. This paper
contributes to this debate by studying the driving forces of fluctuations in an estimated new …

This paper shows that standard international business cycle models can be reconciled with
the empirical evidence on the lack of consumption risk sharing. First, we show analytically …

Microeconomic evidence reveals a direct link between firms' current earnings and their
access to debt. This paper studies macroeconomic implications of earnings-based …

Our answer: not so well. We reach that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the
role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a …

This paper estimates the effects of technology shocks in VAR models of the US, identified by
imposing restrictions on the sign of impulse responses. These restrictions are consistent with …

Over the past decades, time series analysis has experienced a proliferous increase of
applications in economics, especially in macroeconomics and finance. Today these tools …