[HTML][HTML] ENSO predictability over the past 137 years based on a CESM ensemble prediction system

T Liu, X Song, Y Tang, Z Shen, X Tan - Journal of Climate, 2022 - journals.ametsoc.org
In this study, we conducted an ensemble retrospective prediction from 1881 to 2017 using
the Community Earth System Model to evaluate El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) …

A strong 2023/24 El Niño is staged by tropical Pacific Ocean heat content buildup

T Lian, J Wang, D Chen, T Liu… - Ocean-Land-Atmosphere …, 2023 - spj.science.org
The upper ocean heat content in the equatorial Pacific usually serves as a primary precursor
for an upcoming El Niño, while strong atmospheric perturbations such as westerly wind burst …

A multi-model prediction system for ENSO

T Liu, Y Gao, X Song, C Gao, L Tao, Y Tang… - Science China Earth …, 2023 - Springer
Abstract The El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary source of predictability
for seasonal climate prediction. To improve the ENSO prediction skill, we established a multi …

Predictability of Indian Ocean Dipole Over 138 Years Using a CESM Ensemble‐Prediction System

X Song, Y Tang, T Liu, X Li - Journal of Geophysical Research …, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
In this study, we performed a long‐term ensemble hindcast from 1880 to 2017 (138 years)
using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and conducted a comprehensive …

[HTML][HTML] Decadal variation of the rainfall predictability over the maritime continent in the wet season

X Li, Y Tang, X Song, T Liu - Journal of Climate, 2022 - journals.ametsoc.org
Maritime Continent (MC) rainfall plays an important role in global climate variability, but its
prediction remains extremely challenging. Based on a long-term state-of-the-art hindcast …

Suppressive MJO in April 2014 downgraded the 2014/15 El Niño

J Wang, D Chen, T Lian, B Li, X Han… - Journal of Climate, 2024 - journals.ametsoc.org
The sudden halting of the extreme 2014/15 El Niño expected by many was attributed to the
absence of westerly wind bursts (WWBs) in late spring and early summer 2014 in previous …

On oceanic initial state errors in the ensemble data assimilation for a coupled general circulation model

Y Chen, Z Shen, Y Tang - Journal of Advances in Modeling …, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
In the construction of an ensemble‐based data assimilation system for a complex fully
coupled general circulation model (CGCM), the model state errors at initial time of …

Indian Ocean Basin Warming in 2020 Forced by Thermocline Anomalies of the 2019 Indian Ocean Dipole

J Wang, S Zhang, H Jiang, D Yuan - Journal of Climate, 2024 - journals.ametsoc.org
Abstract The Indian Ocean basin (IOB) mode is the dominant mode of the interannual sea
surface temperature (SST) variability in the Indian Ocean, with the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) …

Ocean data assimilation for the initialization of seasonal prediction with the Community Earth System Model

Y Chen, Z Shen, Y Tang, X Song - Ocean Modelling, 2023 - Elsevier
Seasonal prediction highly depends on its initialization scheme. Currently, the operational
utilization of advanced data assimilation methods in the oceanic initialization is still relatively …

[HTML][HTML] The predictability study of the two flavors of ENSO in the CESM model from 1881 to 2017

T Liu, X Song, Y Tang - Climate Dynamics, 2022 - Springer
In this study, we evaluated the predictability of the two flavors of the El Niño Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) based on a long-term retrospective prediction from 1881 to 2017 with the …