With projections showing inflation heading back toward target and the labor market
continuing to improve, the Federal Reserve has begun to contemplate an increase in the …

We ask whether uncertainty about interest rates is important for economic activity. The
effects of interest rate uncertainty on the economy are examined through the lens of a small …

This paper studies the nonlinear response of the term structure of interest rates to monetary
policy shocks and presents a new stylized fact. We show that uncertainty about monetary …

This paper investigates the predictive content of news-based advanced market, regional,
and global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) measures for bond spreads and their volatility …

This chapter provides an overview of surveys of professional forecasters, with a focus on the
US Survey of Professional Forecasters and the European Central Bank Survey of …

We use several US and euro‐area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic
factor model of inflation featuring time‐varying uncertainty. We obtain survey‐consistent …

Using a large international survey of professional forecasters, we construct measures of
economic uncertainty surrounding output growth, inflation, the interest rate, exchange rate …

Monetary policy strategy and its communication are inexorably linked. Monetary policy
actions are most effective in promoting good macroeconomic performance when the public …

We study the forecasting power of economic uncertainty about government policy for future
bond returns. Using the economic policy uncertainty measure () developed by Baker, Bloom …

To assess the importance of inflation risk for nominal Treasury yields, a novel quadratic term
structure model with time-varying inflation risk is estimated using survey-based inflation …