Future scenarios with significant anthropogenic climate change also display large increases
in world production of fossil fuels, the principal CO2 emission source. Meanwhile, fossil fuel …

Equilibrium climate sensitivity characterizes the Earth's long-term global temperature
response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration. It has reached almost iconic status …

A profound transformation of China's energy system is required to achieve carbon neutrality.
Here, we couple Monte Carlo analysis with a bottom-up energy-environment-economy …

Abstract The recently published Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
projections to 2100 give likely ranges of global temperature increase in four scenarios for …

Long-term scenarios play an important role in research on global environmental change.
The climate change research community is developing new scenarios integrating future …

The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to “well below 2° C.”
Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we …

Modeling the Environment was the first textbook in an emerging field—the modeling
techniques that allow managers and researchers to see in advance the consequences of …

A probabilistic framework is presented for combining information from an ensemble of four
general circulation models (GCMs), two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, two statistical …

The Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model is the part of the MIT Integrated
Global Systems Model (IGSM) that represents the human systems. EPPA is a recursive …

Scenarios play a prominent role in policy debates over climate change, but questions
continue about how best to use them. We describe a new analytic method, based on robust …