[HTML][HTML] The replication crisis has led to positive structural, procedural, and community changes
The emergence of large-scale replication projects yielding successful rates substantially
lower than expected caused the behavioural, cognitive, and social sciences to experience a …
lower than expected caused the behavioural, cognitive, and social sciences to experience a …
When expert predictions fail
We examine the opportunities and challenges of expert judgment in the social sciences,
scrutinizing the way social scientists make predictions. While social scientists show above …
scrutinizing the way social scientists make predictions. While social scientists show above …
Systematizing confidence in open research and evidence (score)
N Alipourfard, B Arendt, DM Benjamin… - …, 2021 - digitalcommons.odu.edu
Assessing the credibility of research claims is a central, continuous, and laborious part of the
scientific process. Credibility assessment strategies range from expert judgment to …
scientific process. Credibility assessment strategies range from expert judgment to …
[HTML][HTML] Mathematically aggregating experts' predictions of possible futures
Structured protocols offer a transparent and systematic way to elicit and combine/aggregate,
probabilistic predictions from multiple experts. These judgements can be aggregated …
probabilistic predictions from multiple experts. These judgements can be aggregated …
[HTML][HTML] Reimagining peer review as an expert elicitation process
Journal peer review regulates the flow of ideas through an academic discipline and thus has
the power to shape what a research community knows, actively investigates, and …
the power to shape what a research community knows, actively investigates, and …
[HTML][HTML] Eliciting expert judgements to underpin our understanding of faecal indicator organism loss from septic tank systems
Septic tank systems (STS) in rural catchments represent a potential source of microbial
pollution to watercourses; however, data concerning the risk of faecal indicator organism …
pollution to watercourses; however, data concerning the risk of faecal indicator organism …
Predicting and reasoning about replicability using structured groups
This paper explores judgements about the replicability of social and behavioural sciences
research and what drives those judgements. Using a mixed methods approach, it draws on …
research and what drives those judgements. Using a mixed methods approach, it draws on …
Can large language models help predict results from a complex behavioural science study?
We tested whether large language models (LLMs) can help predict results from a complex
behavioural science experiment. In study 1, we investigated the performance of the widely …
behavioural science experiment. In study 1, we investigated the performance of the widely …
The wisdom of the coherent: Improving correspondence with coherence-weighted aggregation.
Previous research shows that variation in coherence (ie, degrees of respect for axioms of
probability calculus), when used as a basis for performance-weighted aggregation, can …
probability calculus), when used as a basis for performance-weighted aggregation, can …
Engaging undergraduate students in preprint peer review
D Holford, J McLean, AO Holcombe… - Active Learning in …, 2024 - journals.sagepub.com
Authentic assessment allows students to demonstrate knowledge and skills in real-world
tasks. In research, peer review is one such task that researchers learn by doing, as they …
tasks. In research, peer review is one such task that researchers learn by doing, as they …