Do oil shocks matter for exchange rates? This paper identifies three structural shocks that
impact on the oil market and analyzes their effect on exchange rates in 43 advanced and …

Since 1999, IMF staff have been tracking several early warning system (EWS) models of
currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed …

Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that
require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov …

This paper summarises the vast evidence on micro price-setting recently obtained for euro
area countries. We consider studies with micro data on consumer and producer prices, as …

We examine which indicators are most useful in explaining the cost of economic crises in EU
and OECD countries between 1970 and 2010. To define the dependent variable we …

There are several types of risk aversion indicators used by financial institutions. These
indicators, which are estimated in diverse ways, often show differing developments …

This paper describes some experiments with the construction of relatively simple indices
which summarise in a systematic and objective way information about emerging economies …

Pegged exchange rates are often pointed out as more prone to risk of overvaluation,
because their real exchange rates have a tendency to appreciate. We check this assumption …

Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents
an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work. We distinguish …

Sovereign default models that differ in their treatment of unobservable country, regional and
time heterogeneities are systematically compared. The analysis is based on annual data …