The relationship central to most inflation models, between slack and inflation, seems to have
weakened. Do we need a new framework? This paper uses three very different approaches …

We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in inflation expectations, and use it to
interpret joint dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations for the United States and other …

Using a small Bayesian dynamic factor model of the euro area, we estimate the deviations of
output from its trend that are consistent with the behavior of inflation. We label these …

We develop an empirical model to study the influence of global factors in driving trend
inflation and the inflation gap. We apply our model to 7 developed economies and 21 …

In this paper we investigate dynamics of inflation and short-run inflation expectations. We
estimate a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model using Bayesian techniques. We then …

We find that it does, but choosing the right specification is not trivial. Based on an extensive
forecast evaluation we document notable forecast instabilities for most simple Phillips …

This chapter provides an overview of surveys of professional forecasters, with a focus on the
US Survey of Professional Forecasters and the European Central Bank Survey of …

This paper examines the presence of nonlinearities in the Phillips curve. We allow for a
flexible form of nonlinearity and estimate a threshold regression model with the number and …

We document that the convenience yield of US Treasuries exhibits properties that are
consistent with a hedging perspective of safe assets, ie, Treasuries are valued highly if they …

In this paper, we assess whether using non-linear dimension reduction techniques pays off
for forecasting inflation in real-time. Several recent methods from the machine learning …