Impact forecasting to support emergency management of natural hazards
Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties,
and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude …
and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude …
Towards scientific forecasting of magmatic eruptions
Forecasting eruptions is a fundamental goal of volcanology. However, difficulties in
identifying eruptive precursors, fragmented approaches and lack of resources make eruption …
identifying eruptive precursors, fragmented approaches and lack of resources make eruption …
The build-up and triggers of volcanic eruptions
More than 800 million people live in proximity to active volcanoes and could be directly
impacted by potential eruptions. Mitigation of future volcanic hazards requires adequate …
impacted by potential eruptions. Mitigation of future volcanic hazards requires adequate …
Partly cloudy with a chance of lava flows: Forecasting volcanic eruptions in the twenty‐first century
MP Poland, KR Anderson - Journal of Geophysical Research …, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
A primary goal of volcanology is forecasting hazardous eruptive activity. Despite much
progress over the last century, however, volcanoes still erupt with no detected precursors …
progress over the last century, however, volcanoes still erupt with no detected precursors …
Extreme curvature of shallow magma pathways controlled by competing stresses: Insights from the 2018 Sierra Negra eruption
Eruptions at shield volcanoes often occur from radially aligned linear fissures fed by blade‐
like magma‐filled cracks (dykes). The fissures of the 2018 Sierra Negra eruption were …
like magma‐filled cracks (dykes). The fissures of the 2018 Sierra Negra eruption were …
[HTML][HTML] Magma reservoir evolution during the build up to and recovery from caldera-forming eruptions–a generalizable model?
Silicic calderas globally tend to record a cyclic magmatic, structural, and eruptive
evolutionary progression. Some calderas are polycyclic, involving multiple catastrophic …
evolutionary progression. Some calderas are polycyclic, involving multiple catastrophic …
Defining the pre-eruptive states of active volcanoes for improving eruption forecasting
A crucial feature to manage a volcanic crisis is the ability of volcanologists to promptly detect
an impending eruption. This is often affected by significant uncertainty, mainly for the …
an impending eruption. This is often affected by significant uncertainty, mainly for the …
Evolution in unrest processes at Campi Flegrei caldera as inferred from local seismicity
Abstract Changes in seismicity with time and location are diagnostic signals for
understanding the dynamics of volcanic unrest. We used these signals at the Campi Flegrei …
understanding the dynamics of volcanic unrest. We used these signals at the Campi Flegrei …
Insights into dike nucleation and eruption dynamics from high-resolution seismic imaging of magmatic system at the East Pacific Rise
Models of magmatic systems suggest that the architecture of crustal magma bodies plays an
important role in where volcanic eruptions occur, but detailed field observations are needed …
important role in where volcanic eruptions occur, but detailed field observations are needed …
A simple two-state model interprets temporal modulations in eruptive activity and enhances multivolcano hazard quantification
Volcanic activity typically switches between high-activity states with many eruptions and low-
activity states with few or no eruptions. We present a simple two-regime physics-informed …
activity states with few or no eruptions. We present a simple two-regime physics-informed …