Impact forecasting to support emergency management of natural hazards

B Merz, C Kuhlicke, M Kunz, M Pittore… - Reviews of …, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties,
and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude …

Towards scientific forecasting of magmatic eruptions

V Acocella, M Ripepe, E Rivalta, A Peltier… - Nature Reviews Earth & …, 2024 - nature.com
Forecasting eruptions is a fundamental goal of volcanology. However, difficulties in
identifying eruptive precursors, fragmented approaches and lack of resources make eruption …

The build-up and triggers of volcanic eruptions

L Caricchi, M Townsend, E Rivalta… - Nature Reviews Earth & …, 2021 - nature.com
More than 800 million people live in proximity to active volcanoes and could be directly
impacted by potential eruptions. Mitigation of future volcanic hazards requires adequate …

Partly cloudy with a chance of lava flows: Forecasting volcanic eruptions in the twenty‐first century

MP Poland, KR Anderson - Journal of Geophysical Research …, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
A primary goal of volcanology is forecasting hazardous eruptive activity. Despite much
progress over the last century, however, volcanoes still erupt with no detected precursors …

Extreme curvature of shallow magma pathways controlled by competing stresses: Insights from the 2018 Sierra Negra eruption

T Davis, M Bagnardi, P Lundgren… - Geophysical Research …, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
Eruptions at shield volcanoes often occur from radially aligned linear fissures fed by blade‐
like magma‐filled cracks (dykes). The fissures of the 2018 Sierra Negra eruption were …

[HTML][HTML] Magma reservoir evolution during the build up to and recovery from caldera-forming eruptions–a generalizable model?

CB de Maisonneuve, F Forni, O Bachmann - Earth-Science Reviews, 2021 - Elsevier
Silicic calderas globally tend to record a cyclic magmatic, structural, and eruptive
evolutionary progression. Some calderas are polycyclic, involving multiple catastrophic …

Defining the pre-eruptive states of active volcanoes for improving eruption forecasting

M Rosi, V Acocella, R Cioni, F Bianco… - Frontiers in Earth …, 2022 - frontiersin.org
A crucial feature to manage a volcanic crisis is the ability of volcanologists to promptly detect
an impending eruption. This is often affected by significant uncertainty, mainly for the …

Evolution in unrest processes at Campi Flegrei caldera as inferred from local seismicity

S Danesi, NA Pino, S Carlino, CRJ Kilburn - Earth and Planetary Science …, 2024 - Elsevier
Abstract Changes in seismicity with time and location are diagnostic signals for
understanding the dynamics of volcanic unrest. We used these signals at the Campi Flegrei …

Insights into dike nucleation and eruption dynamics from high-resolution seismic imaging of magmatic system at the East Pacific Rise

M Marjanović, SM Carbotte, A Stopin, SC Singh… - Science …, 2023 - science.org
Models of magmatic systems suggest that the architecture of crustal magma bodies plays an
important role in where volcanic eruptions occur, but detailed field observations are needed …

A simple two-state model interprets temporal modulations in eruptive activity and enhances multivolcano hazard quantification

J Selva, L Sandri, M Taroni, R Sulpizio, P Tierz… - Science …, 2022 - science.org
Volcanic activity typically switches between high-activity states with many eruptions and low-
activity states with few or no eruptions. We present a simple two-regime physics-informed …