Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change
Expert judgement is an unavoidable element of the process-based numerical models used
for climate change projections, and the statistical approaches used to characterize …
for climate change projections, and the statistical approaches used to characterize …
A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol
Expert judgement informs a variety of important applications in conservation and natural
resource management, including threatened species management, environmental impact …
resource management, including threatened species management, environmental impact …
[HTML][HTML] Developing a reference protocol for structured expert elicitation in health-care decision-making: a mixed-methods study.
BACKGROUND Many decisions in health care aim to maximise health, requiring
judgements about interventions that may have higher health effects but potentially incur …
judgements about interventions that may have higher health effects but potentially incur …
[HTML][HTML] Expert elicitation: using the classical model to validate experts' judgments
The inclusion of expert judgments along with other forms of data in science, engineering,
and decision making is inevitable. Expert elicitation refers to formal procedures for obtaining …
and decision making is inevitable. Expert elicitation refers to formal procedures for obtaining …
Guidance on expert knowledge elicitation in food and feed safety risk assessment
European Food Safety Authority - EFSA Journal, 2014 - Wiley Online Library
Quantitative risk assessments facilitate the decisions of risk managers. In the EU, risk
assessment in food and feed safety is the responsibility of the European Food Safety …
assessment in food and feed safety is the responsibility of the European Food Safety …
An integrated decision model with reliability to support transport safety system analysis
Abstract Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) problems necessitate a methodology that is
able to produce reliable and defendable decisions. This is especially the case when it …
able to produce reliable and defendable decisions. This is especially the case when it …
[HTML][HTML] Cross validation for the classical model of structured expert judgment
We update the 2008 TU Delft structured expert judgment database with data from 33
professionally contracted Classical Model studies conducted between 2006 and March …
professionally contracted Classical Model studies conducted between 2006 and March …
Mathematically aggregating experts' predictions of possible futures
Structured protocols offer a transparent and systematic way to elicit and combine/aggregate,
probabilistic predictions from multiple experts. These judgements can be aggregated …
probabilistic predictions from multiple experts. These judgements can be aggregated …
Performance-weighted aggregation: Ferreting out wisdom within the crowd
The benefits of judgment aggregation are intuitive and well-documented. By combining the
input of several judges, practitioners may enhance information sharing and signal strength …
input of several judges, practitioners may enhance information sharing and signal strength …
The value of performance weights and discussion in aggregated expert judgments
In risky situations characterized by imminent decisions, scarce resources, and insufficient
data, policymakers rely on experts to estimate model parameters and their associated …
data, policymakers rely on experts to estimate model parameters and their associated …