A tailor-made survey documents consumers' perceptions of the US economy's response to a
large shock: the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey ran at a daily frequency …

This paper studies how biases in managerial beliefs affect managerial decisions, firm
performance, and the macroeconomy. Using a new survey of US managers I establish three …

Inflation expectations are key determinants of economic activity and are central to the current
policy debate about whether inflation expectations will remain anchored in the face of recent …

Leveraging the increasing availability of” big data” to inform forecasts of labor market activity
is an active, yet challenging, area of research. Often, the primary difficulty is finding credible …

We measure expectations about the short-run economic impact of climate change in a
representative survey of US consumers. Respondents expect not much of an impact on GDP …

Using data from an Italian business survey and a quasi-experimental analysis, we document
the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on firms' expectations. The conflict led firms to …

We propose a novel, survey-based measure of nominal marginal cost expectations held by
business decision makers to track building inflationary pressures and augment the existing …

We study the formation of Chinese consumers' gas price and inflation expectations using a
newly-conducted survey of 2,500 Chinese households. Respondents provided their priors …

Not much. We identify the perceived oil price shock, as well as perceived global demand
and supply shocks, using sign restrictions in a factor-augmented vector autoregression …

Using survey data from German households, we find that individuals with higher concern
about the consequences of climate change have lower inflation expectations up to five years …