The rational expectations hypothesis is a bedrock of modern macroeconomics. It is often
combined with a strong, complementary hypothesis that all data about the state of the …

We investigate biases in expectations across different settings through a large-scale
randomized experiment where participants forecast stable stochastic processes. The …

This paper uses surveys to document CFO perspectives on corporate planning, investment,
capital structure, payout, and shareholder versus stakeholder focus. Comparing policy …

Environmental degradation has become one of the major concerns of the international
community and the most debated topic at international forums. Therefore, policymakers have …

Politics may color interpretations of facts, and thus perceptions of risk. We find that a higher
share of Trump voters in a county is associated with lower perceptions of risk during the …

The 2020 CARES Act directed large cash payments to households. We analyze households'
spending responses using data from a Fintech nonprofit, exploring heterogeneity by income …

We study a newly designed survey administered to a large panel of wealthy retail investors.
The survey elicits beliefs that are important for macroeconomics and finance, and matches …

We study the rationality of individual and consensus forecasts of macroeconomic and
financial variables using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), who …

This paper argues for a careful (re) consideration of the expectations formation process and
a more systematic inclusion of real-time expectations through survey data in macroeconomic …

Previous infant literature has assessed the symmetric impact of monetary policy uncertainty
on a few macro variables. Our study has considered asymmetric monetary policy uncertainty …