Fisheries scientists habitually consider uncertainty in parameter values, but often neglect
uncertainty about model structure, an issue of increasing importance as ecosystem models …

Sub‐seasonal forecasts have been routinely produced at ECMWF since 2002 with
reforecasts produced 'on the fly'to calibrate the real‐time sub‐seasonal forecasts. In this …

Increases in the severity and frequency of drought in a warming climate may negatively
impact agricultural production and food security. Unlike previous studies that have estimated …

The success of multi‐model ensemble combination has been demonstrated in many studies.
Given that a multi‐model contains information from all participating models, including the …

The continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) is a much used measure of performance
for probabilistic forecasts of a scalar observation. It is a quadratic measure of the difference …

NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has transitioned to
operationally use the second generation of their coupled ocean‐atmosphere‐land model …

The Brier skill score (BSS) and the ranked probability skill score (RPSS) are widely used
measures to describe the quality of categorical probabilistic forecasts. They quantify the …

This paper evaluates subseasonal precipitation forecasts for Africa using hindcasts from
three models (ECMWF, UKMO, and NCEP) participating in the Subseasonal to Seasonal …

Ensemble forecasts are the method of choice in numerical weather prediction (NWP) to
generate probabilistic forecasts. The number of members in an ensemble is an important …

The potential of early warning for severe cold conditions is explored using the Subseasonal
to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction research project data archive. We explore the use of a two …