Progress and opportunities in advancing near‐term forecasting of freshwater quality
Near‐term freshwater forecasts, defined as sub‐daily to decadal future predictions of a
freshwater variable with quantified uncertainty, are urgently needed to improve water quality …
freshwater variable with quantified uncertainty, are urgently needed to improve water quality …
An overview of applications of proper scoring rules
A Carvalho - Decision Analysis, 2016 - pubsonline.informs.org
We present a study on the evolution of publications about applications of proper scoring
rules. Specifically, we consider articles reporting the use of proper scoring rules when either …
rules. Specifically, we consider articles reporting the use of proper scoring rules when either …
Data‐driven model uncertainty estimation in hydrologic data assimilation
The increasing availability of earth observations necessitates mathematical methods to
optimally combine such data with hydrologic models. Several algorithms exist for such …
optimally combine such data with hydrologic models. Several algorithms exist for such …
A multi‐model ensemble of baseline and process‐based models improves the predictive skill of near‐term lake forecasts
Water temperature forecasting in lakes and reservoirs is a valuable tool to manage crucial
freshwater resources in a changing and more variable climate, but previous efforts have yet …
freshwater resources in a changing and more variable climate, but previous efforts have yet …
On the combination of physical parameterization schemes for tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts in the context of uncertainty
X Wang, ZM Tan - Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth …, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
The selection of physical parameterization schemes for tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts has
required a substantial amount of effort. In general, the evaluation of physical …
required a substantial amount of effort. In general, the evaluation of physical …
Hydrological uncertainty processor based on a copula function
Z Liu, S Guo, L Xiong, CY Xu - Hydrological sciences journal, 2018 - Taylor & Francis
Quantifying the uncertainty in hydrological forecasting is valuable for water resources
management and decision-making processes. The hydrological uncertainty processor …
management and decision-making processes. The hydrological uncertainty processor …
Data assimilation experiments inform monitoring needs for near‐term ecological forecasts in a eutrophic reservoir
Ecosystems around the globe are experiencing changes in both the magnitude and
fluctuations of environmental conditions due to land use and climate change. In response …
fluctuations of environmental conditions due to land use and climate change. In response …
Empirical prediction intervals improve energy forecasting
Hundreds of organizations and analysts use energy projections, such as those contained in
the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)'s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), for …
the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)'s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), for …
[HTML][HTML] Beyond strictly proper scoring rules: The importance of being local
H Du - Weather and forecasting, 2021 - journals.ametsoc.org
The evaluation of probabilistic forecasts plays a central role both in the interpretation and in
the use of forecast systems and their development. Probabilistic scores (scoring rules) …
the use of forecast systems and their development. Probabilistic scores (scoring rules) …
Temperature trends and prediction skill in NMME seasonal forecasts
NY Krakauer - Climate Dynamics, 2019 - Springer
Abstract The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) provides hindcasts and real-
time predictions for monthly mean climate fields at lead times of up to a year. These global …
time predictions for monthly mean climate fields at lead times of up to a year. These global …