Political budget cycles: Manipulation by leaders versus manipulation by researchers? Evidence from a meta‐regression analysis

P Mandon, A Cazals - Journal of Economic Surveys, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
Despite a long history of research on political budget cycles, their existence and magnitude
are still in question. By conducting a systematic analysis of the existing literature, we intend …

[HTML][HTML] Procyclicality of fiscal policy in European Union countries

B Gootjes, J de Haan - Journal of International Money and Finance, 2022 - Elsevier
Using real-time data, we examine whether fiscal policy has been counter-or procyclical in a
panel of 27 European Union (EU) member states over the period 2000–2015. We also …

National numerical fiscal rules: Not complied with, but still effective?

WH Reuter - European Journal of Political Economy, 2015 - Elsevier
This paper investigates the effects of (non-) compliance with national numerical fiscal rules
on fiscal policy in 11 EU member states with 23 fiscal rules in place from 1994 to 2012 …

Real-time fiscal policy responses in the OECD from 1997 to 2018: Procyclical but sustainable?

P Aldama, J Creel - European Journal of Political Economy, 2022 - Elsevier
This paper presents empirical evidence of asymmetric fiscal policy along the business cycle,
using a real-time panel dataset on 19 OECD countries from 1997 to 2018. We estimate …

Fiscal forecast errors: governments versus independent agencies?

R Merola, JJ Pérez - European Journal of Political Economy, 2013 - Elsevier
We present evidence pointing to the fact that international agencies' fiscal forecasts were
affected to some extent by the same type of problems that the literature widely …

Democracy, elections and government budget deficits

J Haan - German Economic Review, 2014 - degruyter.com
I review research on the relationship between democracy and government indebtedness. I
first discuss whether the extent to which politicians use fiscal policy for reelection purposes …

The influence of transparency on budget forecast deviations in municipal governments

AM Ríos, MD Guillamón, B Benito… - Journal of …, 2018 - Wiley Online Library
This paper analyzes the impact of transparency on fiscal performance. Our sample
considers the 100 largest Spanish municipalities for the years 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, and …

On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries

B Jochimsen, R Lehmann - Public Choice, 2017 - Springer
Sustainable budgets are important quality signals for the electorate. Politicians might thus
have an incentive to influence tax revenue forecasts, which are widely regarded as a key …

Budget forecast deviations in municipal governments: Determinants and implications

B Benito, MD Guillamón… - Australian Accounting …, 2015 - Wiley Online Library
This paper analyses the determinants of municipalities' budget forecast quality, showing
opportunistic behaviour influenced by the electoral cycle. Incumbents overestimate revenue …

Uninformed voters with (im) precise expectations: Explaining political budget cycle puzzles

L Crombach, F Bohn - Economics & Politics, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
Governments try to improve re‐election chances by using fiscal instruments; they can shift
voters' expectations of government competence because some voters are impaired by …