We show that the conditional distribution of forecasted GDP growth depends on financial
conditions in a panel of 11 advanced economies. Financial conditions have a larger effect …

We study the relationship between credit expansions, macroeconomic fluctuations, and
financial crises using a novel database on the sectoral distribution of private credit for 117 …

We consider simple methods to improve the growth nowcasts and forecasts obtained by
mixed-frequency MIDAS and UMIDAS models with a variety of indicators during the Covid …

We conduct an out-of-sample backtesting exercise of Growth-at-Risk (GaR) predictions for
24 OECD countries. We consider forecasts constructed from quantile regression and …

We model permanent and transitory changes of the predictive density of US GDP growth. A
substantial increase in downside risk to US economic growth emerges over the last 30 …

Monitoring changes in financial conditions provides valuable information on the contribution
of financial risks to future economic growth. For that purpose, central banks need real-time …

Many studies using quantile regressions (QRs) have found that downside risk to output
growth varies more than upside risk. We show that Bayesian vector autoregressions …

This paper focuses on nowcasts of tail risk to GDP growth, with a potentially wide array of
monthly and weekly information. We consider different models (Bayesian mixed frequency …

How can macroeconomic tail risks originating from financial vulnerabilities be monitored
systematically over time? This question lies at the heart of operationalising the …

How will climate change affect risks to economic activity? Research on climate impacts has
tended to focus on effects on the average level of economic growth. I examine whether …