Analysis of the forecast price as a factor of sustainable development of agriculture

M Tatarintsev, S Korchagin, P Nikitin, R Gorokhova… - Agronomy, 2021 - mdpi.com
Analysis of the rise in prices for consumer goods is a state's priority task. The state assumes
the obligation to regulate pricing in all spheres of consumption. First of all, the prices for …

Impulse response function analysis for Markov switching var models

M Cavicchioli - Economics Letters, 2023 - Elsevier
We exactly derive the regime-dependent impulse response functions for a Markov switching
vector autoregression (VAR) model in terms of neat matrix expressions in closed form. The …

[HTML][HTML] Performance of negatively screened sustainable investments during crisis

X Lin, RB Swain - International Review of Economics & Finance, 2024 - Elsevier
We investigate the market performance of negatively screened environment social and
governance (ESG) portfolio or sustainable investments prior to and during crisis. A general …

[HTML][HTML] A matrix unified framework for deriving various impulse responses in Markov switching VAR: Evidence from oil and gas markets

M Cavicchioli - The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 2024 - Elsevier
We propose a new method to compute various impulse response functions (IRF) for a
Markov switching VAR model in terms of neat matrix expressions in closed form. The key is …

Fractional stochastic volatility model

S Shi, X Liu, J Yu - Journal of Time Series Analysis, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
This article introduces a discrete‐time fractional stochastic volatility model (FSV) based on
fractional Gaussian noise. The new model includes the standard stochastic volatility model …

Maximum likelihood estimation in Markov regime‐switching models with covariate‐dependent transition probabilities

D Pouzo, Z Psaradakis, M Sola - Econometrica, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in a large class of models with
hidden Markov regimes. We investigate consistency of the ML estimator and local …

Estimation and asymptotics for vector autoregressive models with unit roots and Markov switching trends

M Cavicchioli - Stochastics, 2023 - Taylor & Francis
We provide a formal definition of an M-state multivariate Markov switching (MS) trend,
describe its asymptotic distribution, and consider vector autoregressive processes with MS …

Asymptotic Properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator for Markov-switching Observation-driven Models

F Krabbe - arXiv preprint arXiv:2412.19555, 2024 - arxiv.org
A Markov-switching observation-driven model is a stochastic process $((S_t, Y_t)) _
{t\in\mathbb {Z}} $ where (i) $(S_t) _ {t\in\mathbb {Z}} $ is an unobserved Markov process …

Asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator for Hidden Markov Models indexed by binary trees

J Weibel - arXiv preprint arXiv:2409.06295, 2024 - arxiv.org
We consider hidden Markov models indexed by a binary tree where the hidden state space
is a general metric space. We study the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the model …

The co-integration of CDS and bonds in time-varying volatility dynamics: do credit risk swaps lower bond risks?

L Li, F Scrimgeour - Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2022 - degruyter.com
This study analyzes the co-integration relationship between sovereign bonds and credit
default swaps (CDS) and then examines the impact of CDS-bond deviation from the …