Recognising the world's lack of preparedness for the COVID-19 pandemic, international
organisations like the World Health Organization, World Bank, and International Monetary …

This paper estimates the causal effect of fiscal rules on fiscal balances in a panel of 142
countries over the period 1985–2015. Our instrumental variable strategy exploits the …

Why does Japan defy gravity with gross public debt levels above 200 percent of GDP and
others default on a considerably smaller stock of obligations (eg, 30 percent of GDP in …

This paper documents nonlinearities and asymmetries in the transmission of exchange rate
fluctuations to prices in a panel of 27 emerging markets for the period 1990–2013. Using …

A large number of previous studies suggest that many USDA forecasts are biased and/or
inefficient. These findings, however, may be the result of the assumed loss function of USDA …

How reliable are public debt statistics? This paper quantifies the magnitude, characteristics,
and timing of hidden debt by tracking ex post data revisions across a comprehensive new …

To which extent does business experience of politicians influence economic policies and
economic outcomes? I review the new empirical literature which examines this question …

This paper examines the role of data transparency in explaining gross domestic product
(GDP) growth forecast errors-the difference between forecasted and realized growth. On …

We show that rational but inattentive agents can become polarized ex ante. We present how
optimal information acquisition and subsequent belief formation depend crucially on the …

Exponential growth bias (EGB) is the pervasive tendency of people to perceive a growth
process as linear when in fact it is exponential. We document that people exhibit EGB when …