We extend Kreps'(1979) analysis of preference for flexibility, reinterpreted by Kreps (1992)
as a model of unforeseen contingencies. We enrich the choice set, consequently obtaining …

People may be surprised to notice certain regularities that hold in existing knowledge they
have had for some time. That is, they may learn without getting new factual information. We …

Collective wisdom refers to the ability of a population or group of individuals to make an
accurate forecast of a future outcome or an accurate characterization of a current outcome …

We present a decision-theoretic analysis of an agent's understanding of the
interdependencies in her choices. We provide the foundations for a simple and flexible …

Many financial situations present individuals with simple alternatives to solving complex
problems. The value of these alternatives depends on whether individuals are sophisticated …

Private information is typically modeled as signals. A joint probability distribution captures
relationships between signals and between signals and relevant variables. In this paper, we …

We develop a model of undescribable events. Examples of events that are well understood
by economic agents but are prohibitively difficult to describe in advance abound in real life …

The demise of Enron, the largest bankruptcy in United States history, raised fundamental
questions about the role of trust in agency relationships. The corporate collapse cast doubts …

This paper studies measurable processes modeling a continuum of random variables such
that individual uncertainty cancels out exactly at the aggregate level (in the sense of a strong …

Актуальность. Для современного мира важен поиск новой рациональности и уход от
однолинейной модели развития. Появляется феномен «сложного социума», в котором …