Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The
uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and …

We review the recent literature on rational inattention, identify the main theoretical
mechanisms, and explain how it helps us understand a variety of phenomena across fields …

Households' and firms' subjective inflation expectations play a central role in
macroeconomic and intertemporal microeconomic models. We discuss how subjective …

We study the rationality of individual and consensus forecasts of macroeconomic and
financial variables using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), who …

Commonly used instruments for the identification of monetary policy disturbances are likely
to combine the true policy shock with information about the state of the economy due to the …

This paper argues for a careful (re) consideration of the expectations formation process and
a more systematic inclusion of real-time expectations through survey data in macroeconomic …

This paper analyzes how bounded rationality affects monetary and fiscal policy via an
empirically relevant enrichment of the New Keynesian model. It models agents' partial …

It surprised investors, who dumped stocks and brought the market index down by 500 points
on Monday. It surprised policymakers, who rushed to rescue other financial institutions after …

Abstract We survey New Zealand firms and document novel facts about their
macroeconomic beliefs. There is widespread dispersion in beliefs about past and future …

We study people's subjective models of the macroeconomy and shed light on their
attentional foundations. To do so, we measure beliefs about the effects of macroeconomic …