We review the literature on gold as an investment. We summarize a wide variety of literature,
including the papers in this special issue of International Review of Financial Analysis to …

This paper surveys the literature since 1993 on pseudo out-of-sample evaluation of inflation
forecasts in the United States and conducts an extensive empirical analysis that …

Abstract Here's why.(a) The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter introduces spurious dynamic
relations that have no basis in the underlying data-generating process.(b) Filtered values at …

This paper argues for a careful (re) consideration of the expectations formation process and
a more systematic inclusion of real-time expectations through survey data in macroeconomic …

Inflation forecasting is an important but difficult task. Here, we explore advances in machine
learning (ML) methods and the availability of new datasets to forecast US inflation. Despite …

Several academics and practitioners have pointed out that inflation follows a seemingly
exogenous statistical process, unrelated to the output gap, leading some to argue that the …

We evaluate explanations for the absence of disinflation during the Great Recession and
find popular explanations to be insufficient. We propose a new explanation for this puzzle …

The business cycle is alive and well, and real variables respond to it more or less as they
always did. Witness the Great Recession. Inflation, in contrast, has gone quiescent. This …

Summary We move beyond Is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting? by
adding the how. The current forecasting literature has focused on matching specific …

We propose a new strategy for dissecting the macroeconomic time series, provide a
template for the business-cycle propagation mechanism that best describes the data, and …