Global supply chains have come under unprecedented stress as a result of US-China trade
tensions, the Covid-19 pandemic, and geopolitical shocks. We document shifts in the pattern …

Abstract Using a New Keynesian Phillips curve, we document the rapid and persistent
increase in the natural rate of unemployment, ut∗, in the aftermath of the pandemic and …

We develop a multisector, open economy, New Keynesian framework to evaluate how
potentially binding capacity constraints, and shocks to them, shape inflation. We show that …

We interpret recent inflation experience through the lens of a new Keynesian model with
price and wage rigidities and non-labor inputs in inelastic supply. The model provides a …

We estimate a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of
domestic inflation during 2020–2023 in several countries, including the United States. The …

We study the impact of demand and supply factors on bottlenecks and inflation during the
COVID-19 pandemic. Initial policy interventions, from lockdowns to fiscal stimuli, triggered …

This paper reviews evidence on the role of the labor market in driving inflation and analyzes
the US labor market, and its contribution to inflation, during the COVID pandemic and …

How does public debt matter for price stability? If it is useful for the private sector to insure
idiosyncratic risk, government debt expansions can increase the natural rate of interest and …

Despite its stability over time, as for any statistical relationship, Okun's law is subject to
deviations that can be large at times. In this paper, we provide a mapping between residuals …

This paper studies the pass-through from wages to producer prices using sectoral
disaggregated data for the euro area. We find a positive and statistically significant wage …