The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): an hourly updating convection-allowing forecast model. Part II: Forecast performance

EP James, CR Alexander, DC Dowell… - Weather and …, 2022 - journals.ametsoc.org
Abstract The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is a convection-allowing
implementation of the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecast …

Calibration of machine learning–based probabilistic hail predictions for operational forecasting

A Burke, N Snook, DJ Gagne II… - Weather and …, 2020 - journals.ametsoc.org
In this study, we use machine learning (ML) to improve hail prediction by postprocessing
numerical weather prediction (NWP) data from the new High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast …

[HTML][HTML] Postprocessing and visualization techniques for convection-allowing ensembles

B Roberts, IL Jirak, AJ Clark… - Bulletin of the …, 2019 - journals.ametsoc.org
PostProcessing and Visualization Techniques for Convection-Allowing Ensembles in:
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 100 Issue 7 (2019) Jump to …

[HTML][HTML] Comparing and interpreting differently designed random forests for next-day severe weather hazard prediction

ED Loken, AJ Clark, A McGovern - Weather and Forecasting, 2022 - journals.ametsoc.org
Recent research has shown that random forests (RFs) can create skillful probabilistic severe
weather hazard forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensemble data …

Generating probabilistic next-day severe weather forecasts from convection-allowing ensembles using random forests

ED Loken, AJ Clark, CD Karstens - Weather and Forecasting, 2020 - journals.ametsoc.org
Extracting explicit severe weather forecast guidance from convection-allowing ensembles
(CAEs) is challenging since CAEs cannot directly simulate individual severe weather …

[HTML][HTML] Postprocessing next-day ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts using random forests

ED Loken, AJ Clark, A McGovern… - Weather and …, 2019 - journals.ametsoc.org
Postprocessing Next-Day Ensemble Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Using Random
Forests in: Weather and Forecasting Volume 34 Issue 6 (2019) Jump to Content Jump to Main …

[HTML][HTML] Toward unifying short-term and next-day convection-allowing ensemble forecast systems with a continuously cycling 3-km ensemble Kalman filter over the …

CS Schwartz, GS Romine… - Weather and …, 2021 - journals.ametsoc.org
Abstract Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, 80-member ensemble
Kalman filter (EnKF) analyses with 3-km horizontal grid spacing were produced over the …

[HTML][HTML] Meteorologists' interpretations of storm-scale ensemble-based forecast guidance

KA Wilson, PL Heinselman, PS Skinner… - Weather, Climate …, 2019 - journals.ametsoc.org
Abstract During the 2017 Spring Forecasting Experiment in NOAA's Hazardous Weather
Testbed, 62 meteorologists completed a survey designed to test their understanding of …

Initial conditions for convection-allowing ensembles over the conterminous United States

CS Schwartz, M Wong, GS Romine… - Monthly Weather …, 2020 - journals.ametsoc.org
Abstract Five sets of 48-h, 10-member, convection-allowing ensemble (CAE) forecasts with 3-
km horizontal grid spacing were systematically evaluated over the conterminous United …

Initial Condition Convection-Allowing Ensembles with Large Membership for Probabilistic Prediction of Convective Hazards

RP Manser, BC Ancell - Monthly Weather Review, 2023 - journals.ametsoc.org
Convection-allowing model (CAM) ensemble forecasts provide quantitative probabilistic
guidance of convective hazards that forecasters would otherwise qualitatively assess …