The physics of climate variability and climate change

M Ghil, V Lucarini - Reviews of Modern Physics, 2020 - APS
The climate is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex, and heterogeneous system that is
out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of …

A century of nonlinearity in the geosciences

M Ghil - Earth and Space Science, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
This paper provides a thumbnail sketch of the evolution of nonlinear ideas in the
mathematics and physics of the geosciences, broadly construed, over the last hundred or so …

[图书][B] Extremes and recurrence in dynamical systems

V Lucarini, D Faranda, JMM de Freitas, M Holland… - 2016 - books.google.com
Written by a team of international experts, Extremes and Recurrence in Dynamical Systems
presents a unique point of view on the mathematical theory of extremes and on its …

Predicting climate change using response theory: Global averages and spatial patterns

V Lucarini, F Ragone, F Lunkeit - Journal of Statistical Physics, 2017 - Springer
The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and
natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient …

[HTML][HTML] Probabilistic concepts in a changing climate: A snapshot attractor picture

G Drótos, T Bódai, T Tél - Journal of Climate, 2015 - journals.ametsoc.org
Probabilistic Concepts in a Changing Climate: A Snapshot Attractor Picture in: Journal of
Climate Volume 28 Issue 8 (2015) Jump to Content Logo Logo Logo Logo Logo Logo …

The theory of parallel climate realizations: A new framework of ensemble methods in a changing climate: An overview

T Tél, T Bódai, G Drótos, T Haszpra, M Herein… - Journal of Statistical …, 2020 - Springer
Based on the theory of “snapshot/pullback attractors”, we show that important features of the
climate change that we are observing can be understood by imagining many replicas of …

Overview of the advances in understanding chaos in low-dimensional dynamical systems subjected to parameter drift: Parallel dynamical evolutions and” climate …

D Jánosi, T Tél - Physics Reports, 2024 - Elsevier
This paper offers a review while also studying yet unexplored features of the area of chaotic
systems subjected to parameter drift of non-negligible rate, an area where the methods of …

Generic generation of noise-driven chaos in stochastic time delay systems: Bridging the gap with high-end simulations

MD Chekroun, I Koren, H Liu, H Liu - Science advances, 2022 - science.org
Nonlinear time delay systems produce inherently delay-induced periodic oscillations, which
are, however, too idealistic compared to observations. We exhibit a unified stochastic …

Annual variability in a conceptual climate model: Snapshot attractors, hysteresis in extreme events, and climate sensitivity

T Bódai, T Tél - Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear …, 2012 - pubs.aip.org
In a conceptual model of global atmospheric circulation, the effects of annually periodic
driving are investigated. The driven system is represented in terms of snapshot attractors …

Revising and extending the linear response theory for statistical mechanical systems: Evaluating observables as predictors and predictands

V Lucarini - Journal of Statistical Physics, 2018 - Springer
Linear response theory, originally formulated for studying how near-equilibrium statistical
mechanical systems respond to small perturbations, has developed into a formidable set of …