Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on
future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more …

What are the predictions of climate models, should we believe them, and are they
falsifiable? Probably the most iconic and influential result arising from climate models is the …

This paper provides a historical review and critique of stochastic generating models for
hydrological observables, from early generation of monthly discharge series, through flood …

Recently a number of scientists have proposed substantial changes to the practice of climate
modeling, though they disagree over what those changes should be. We provide an …

This chapter discusses the issues associated with the invalidation of computer simulation
models, taking environmental science as an example. We argue that invalidation is …

Predicting regional climate variability is a key goal of initialised decadal predictions and the
North Atlantic has been a major focus due to its high level of predictability and potential …

What we see now in the landscape is the result of a long history of events with varying
degrees of persistence. We have only limited access to much of that history and we know …

This paper shows that the most predictable components of internal variability in coupled
atmosphere–ocean models are remarkably similar to the most predictable components of …

We demonstrate levels of skill for forecasts of seasonal-mean wind speed and solar
irradiance in Europe, using seasonal forecast systems available from the Copernicus …

Empirical models, designed to predict surface variables over seasons to decades ahead,
provide useful benchmarks for comparison against the performance of dynamical forecast …