We derive the Bayes estimator of vectors of structural VAR impulse responses under a range
of alternative loss functions. We also discuss the construction of joint credible regions for …

This paper documents large revisions in a widely used series of utilization-adjusted total
factor productivity (TFP) by Fernald (2014) and shows that these revisions can materially …

A shock that increases short-term inflation expectations has negative macroeconomic
effects, increasing inflation and decreasing output. The third-order solution of a rich DSGE …

We propose a novel identification scheme for a nontechnology business cycle shock, which
we label “sentiment”. This is a shock orthogonal to identified surprise and news TFP shocks …

This paper discusses the problems associated with using information about the signs of
certain magnitudes as a basis for drawing structural conclusions in vector autoregressions …

What is the effect of government spending on consumption? Neoclassical and new
Keynesian models deliver opposing predictions and empirical studies differ in their …

We propose a novel identification scheme for a non-technology business cycle shock, that
we label “sentiment.” This is a shock orthogonal to identified surprise and news TFP shocks …

This paper examines whether people's animal spirits were drivers of US business cycle
fluctuations. In the context of an estimated macroeconomy with endogenous financial market …

We argue that key findings of the empirical literature on the effects of news about future
technology—including their tendency to generate negative comovement of macro‐economic …

This paper investigates how supply noise and demand noise contribute to business cycle
fluctuations in three major European economies. A structural vector autoregressive model is …