While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible,
earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes …

On 6 April 2009, an Mw 6.2 earthquake struck beneath the city of L'Aquila, central Italy. The
shock created significant damage and caused more than 300 deaths in the city and …

Abstract The 2016–2017 Central Apennines earthquake sequence is a recent example of
how damages from subsequent aftershocks can exceed those caused by the initial …

The epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is the most effective mathematical
description of the short‐term space–time earthquake clustering. However, the use of such a …

Abstract The Epidemic‐Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to describe
the occurrence of earthquakes in space and time, but there has been little discussion …

In 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched
three experiments to forecast the distribution of earthquakes in Italy in the subsequent 5 yrs …

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), as a tool to assess the probability that ground
motion of a given intensity or larger is experienced at a given site and time span, has …

Abstract The M w 6.4 Southwest Puerto Rico Earthquake of 7 January 2020 was
accompanied by a robust fore‐and aftershock sequence. The US Geological Survey (USGS) …

Moderate‐to‐large‐magnitude earthquakes induce considerable short‐to‐medium‐term
increases in seismic hazard, due to the subsequent occurrence of aftershocks. Most studies …

Forecasting aftershock probabilities, as early as possible after a main shock, is required to
mitigate seismic risks in the disaster area. In general, aftershock activity can be complex …