Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales
Abstract Initialized Earth System predictions are made by starting a numerical prediction
model in a state as consistent as possible to observations and running it forward in time for …
model in a state as consistent as possible to observations and running it forward in time for …
FuXi: A cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecast
Over the past few years, the rapid development of machine learning (ML) models for
weather forecasting has led to state-of-the-art ML models that have superior performance …
weather forecasting has led to state-of-the-art ML models that have superior performance …
ACCESS-S1 The new Bureau of Meteorology multi-week to seasonal prediction system
ACCESS-S1 will be the next version of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's seasonal
prediction system, due to become operational in early 2018. The multiweek and seasonal …
prediction system, due to become operational in early 2018. The multiweek and seasonal …
Subseasonal Earth system prediction with CESM2
Prediction systems to enable Earth system predictability research on the subseasonal time
scale have been developed with the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2) …
scale have been developed with the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2) …
Limited surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming
Subseasonal weather prediction can reduce economic disruption and loss of life, especially
during “windows of opportunity” when noteworthy events in the Earth system are followed by …
during “windows of opportunity” when noteworthy events in the Earth system are followed by …
Comparison of initial perturbation methods for ensemble prediction at convective scale
L Raynaud, F Bouttier - Quarterly Journal of the Royal …, 2016 - Wiley Online Library
Convective‐scale ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) are often initialized with downscaled
initial condition perturbations (ICPs) from a global coarser EPS. Although downscaled ICPs …
initial condition perturbations (ICPs) from a global coarser EPS. Although downscaled ICPs …
Skilful multiweek tropical cyclone prediction in ACCESS‐S1 and the role of the MJO
The skill of predicting the weekly occurrence of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Southern
Hemisphere is investigated in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology seasonal forecasting …
Hemisphere is investigated in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology seasonal forecasting …
[HTML][HTML] Uncertainty growth and forecast reliability during extratropical cyclogenesis
MJ Rodwell, H Wernli - Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2023 - wcd.copernicus.org
In global numerical weather prediction, the strongest contribution to ensemble variance
growth over the first few days is at synoptic scales. Hence it is particularly important to …
growth over the first few days is at synoptic scales. Hence it is particularly important to …
Uncertainty quantification for data-driven weather models
Artificial intelligence (AI)-based data-driven weather forecasting models have experienced
rapid progress over the last years. Recent studies, with models trained on reanalysis data …
rapid progress over the last years. Recent studies, with models trained on reanalysis data …
Subseasonal tropical cyclone prediction and modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2
Subseasonal tropical cyclone (TC) reforecasts from the Community Earth System Model
version 2 (CAM6) subseasonal prediction system are examined in this study. We evaluate …
version 2 (CAM6) subseasonal prediction system are examined in this study. We evaluate …