Behavioral and experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: A complex systems approach

C Hommes - Journal of Economic Literature, 2021 - aeaweb.org
This survey discusses behavioral and experimental macroeconomics, emphasizing a
complex systems perspective. The economy consists of boundedly rational heterogeneous …

Expectation formation in finance and macroeconomics: A review of new experimental evidence

T Bao, C Hommes, J Pei - Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 2021 - Elsevier
This paper reviews the recent development and new findings of the literature on learning-to-
forecast experiments (LtFEs). In general, the stylized finding in the typical LtFEs, namely the …

Levels of reasoning in Keynesian Beauty Contests: a generative framework

F Mauersberger, R Nagel - Handbook of computational economics, 2018 - Elsevier
We introduce a generalization of the Beauty Contest (BC) game as a framework that
incorporates different models from micro-and macroeconomics by formulating their reduced …

Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments

C Hommes, A Kopányi-Peuker, J Sonnemans - Experimental Economics, 2021 - Springer
We study the emergence of bubbles in a laboratory experiment with large groups of
individuals. The realized price is the aggregation of the forecasts of a group of individuals …

[HTML][HTML] Examining rational bubbles in global natural gas prices: Evidence from frequency domain estimates

AI Lawal, E Oseni, BB Lawal-Adedoyin… - Energy Strategy …, 2022 - Elsevier
Natural gas plays important role in the global energy sources, hence understanding its price
behavior is important to various economic agents. This study examined whether rational …

Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?

R Rholes, L Petersen - Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2021 - Elsevier
This paper provides original empirical evidence on the emerging practice by central banks
of communicating uncertainty in their inflation projections. We compare the effects of point …

Experience does not eliminate bubbles: Experimental evidence

A Kopányi-Peuker, M Weber - The Review of Financial Studies, 2021 - academic.oup.com
We study the role of investor experience in the formation of asset price bubbles. We conduct
a call market experiment in which participants trade assets with each other and a learning-to …

On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations

C Cornand, P Hubert - Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2020 - Elsevier
Establishing the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts is essential if laboratory
experiments are to be used as decision-making tools for monetary policy. Our contribution is …

Monetary policy rules in a non-rational world: A macroeconomic experiment

F Mauersberger - Journal of Economic Theory, 2021 - Elsevier
This paper introduces a learning-to-forecast laboratory experiment based on a New-
Keynesian macroeconomy that is particularly close to the model's microfoundations. In this …

The impact of interest rate policy on individual expectations and asset bubbles in experimental markets

T Bao, J Zong - Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2019 - Elsevier
We run a learning-to-forecast experiment with an interest rate policy in which the interest
rate will increase/lower sharply when the deviation of asset prices from the fundamental …