Despite the clear success of forecast combination in many economic environments, several
important issues remain incompletely resolved. The issues relate to the selection of the set …

We rank the quality of German macroeconomic forecasts using various methods for 17
regular annual German economic forecasts from 14 different institutions for the period from …

Forecast combination–the aggregation of individual forecasts from multiple experts or
models–is a proven approach to economic forecasting. To date, research on economic …

Combinations of point forecasts from expert forecasters are known to frequently outperform
individual forecasts. It is also well documented that combination by simple averaging very …

This article shows in a simple model that the part of uncertainty measured by forecaster
disagreement rises in advance of and during recessions. Subsequently, it is tested using the …

This article documents spillover effects using participation in an elite international football
tournament as a laboratory. Using a novel dataset from top 5 European football leagues, we …

In this paper, I use the Bloomberg Survey of forecasts to assess if evaluating the distribution
of expectations will lead to important additional insights over the evaluation of the simple …

Survey forecasts are prone to entry and exit of forecasters as well as forecasters not
contributing every period leading to gaps. These gaps make it difficult to compare individual …

In this paper, we study the behavior and effectiveness of several recently developed forecast
combination algorithms in simulated unstable environments, where the performances of …

In the literature, it is a common empirical finding that survey based expectations are biased
at the individual level. This has sparked a large debate if forecasters have asymmetric loss …