A survey of human judgement and quantitative forecasting methods
M Zellner, AE Abbas, DV Budescu… - Royal Society open …, 2021 - royalsocietypublishing.org
This paper's top-level goal is to provide an overview of research conducted in the many
academic domains concerned with forecasting. By providing a summary encompassing …
academic domains concerned with forecasting. By providing a summary encompassing …
Improving intelligence analysis with decision science
Intelligence analysis plays a vital role in policy decision making. Key functions of intelligence
analysis include accurately forecasting significant events, appropriately characterizing the …
analysis include accurately forecasting significant events, appropriately characterizing the …
Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy
MG Morgan - Proceedings of the National academy of …, 2014 - National Acad Sciences
The elicitation of scientific and technical judgments from experts, in the form of subjective
probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of …
probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of …
Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence
DR Mandel, A Barnes - Proceedings of the National …, 2014 - National Acad Sciences
The accuracy of 1,514 strategic intelligence forecasts abstracted from intelligence reports
was assessed. The results show that both discrimination and calibration of forecasts was …
was assessed. The results show that both discrimination and calibration of forecasts was …
Forecasting tournaments: Tools for increasing transparency and improving the quality of debate
PE Tetlock, BA Mellers… - Current Directions in …, 2014 - journals.sagepub.com
Forecasting tournaments are level-playing-field competitions that reveal which individuals,
teams, or algorithms generate more accurate probability estimates on which topics. This …
teams, or algorithms generate more accurate probability estimates on which topics. This …
A heuristic for combining correlated experts when there are few data
D Soule, Y Grushka-Cockayne… - Management …, 2024 - pubsonline.informs.org
It is intuitive and theoretically sound to combine experts' forecasts based on their proven
skills, while accounting for correlation among their forecast submissions. Simpler …
skills, while accounting for correlation among their forecast submissions. Simpler …
Strategic experts' weight manipulation in 2-rank consensus reaching in group decision making
In group decision-making (GDM) problems, decision makers may prefer to divide the
alternatives into two preference-ordered categories, which is called a 2-rank GDM problem …
alternatives into two preference-ordered categories, which is called a 2-rank GDM problem …
Boosting intelligence analysts' judgment accuracy: What works, what fails?
A routine part of intelligence analysis is judging the probability of alternative hypotheses
given available evidence. Intelligence organizations advise analysts to use intelligence …
given available evidence. Intelligence organizations advise analysts to use intelligence …
Forecasting forecaster accuracy: Contributions of past performance and individual differences
M Himmelstein, P Atanasov… - Judgment and Decision …, 2021 - cambridge.org
A growing body of research indicates that forecasting skill is a unique and stable trait:
forecasters with a track record of high accuracy tend to maintain this record. But how does …
forecasters with a track record of high accuracy tend to maintain this record. But how does …
How generalizable is good judgment? A multi-task, multi-benchmark study
Good judgment is often gauged against two gold standards–coherence and
correspondence. Judgments are coherent if they demonstrate consistency with the axioms of …
correspondence. Judgments are coherent if they demonstrate consistency with the axioms of …