The rational expectations hypothesis is a bedrock of modern macroeconomics. It is often
combined with a strong, complementary hypothesis that all data about the state of the …

By matching a large database of individual macroforecaster data with the universe of sizable
natural disasters across 54 countries, we identify a set of new stylized facts: forecasters are …

People reason about uncertainty with deliberately incomplete models. How do people
hampered by different, incomplete views of the world learn from each other? We introduce a …

We propose a model where forecasters have access to noisy signals about the future
(forward information). In this setting, information varies not only across agents but also …

Not much. We identify the perceived oil price shock, as well as perceived global demand
and supply shocks, using sign restrictions in a factor-augmented vector autoregression …

We consider an agent who posits a set of probabilistic models for the payoff-relevant
outcomes. The agent has a prior over this set but fears the actual model is omitted and …

This study proposes a real-time estimate of inattention, based on micro-level data. I show
that a simple specification that estimates the persistence of a forecaster's deviation from the …

How forward guidance influences expectations is not fully understood. To study this, I
construct central bank data that includes forward guidance and its attributes, central bank …

We construct measures of forecasters' subjective uncertainty at horizons from 1 to 5 years,
using the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. The uncertainty …

This paper assesses information contained in the micro dataset of the ECB Survey of
Professional Forecasters regarding quarterly Brent crude oil price forecasts. We examine the …