Financial machine learning

B Kelly, D Xiu - Foundations and Trends® in Finance, 2023 - nowpublishers.com
We survey the nascent literature on machine learning in the study of financial markets. We
highlight the best examples of what this line of research has to offer and recommend …

Realized semi (co) variation: Signs that all volatilities are not created equal

T Bollerslev - Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2022 - academic.oup.com
I provide a selective review of recent developments in financial econometrics related to
measuring, modeling, forecasting, and pricing “good” and “bad” volatilities based on …

[HTML][HTML] Tail behavior of ACD models and consequences for likelihood-based estimation

G Cavaliere, T Mikosch, A Rahbek, F Vilandt - Journal of Econometrics, 2024 - Elsevier
We establish new results for estimation and inference in financial durations models, where
events are observed over a given time span, such as a trading day, or a week. For the …

Graph-based methods for forecasting realized covariances

C Zhang, XS Pu, M Cucuringu… - Mihai and Dong, Xiaowen …, 2022 - papers.ssrn.com
We forecast the realized covariance matrix of asset returns in the US equity market by
exploiting the predictive information of graphs in volatility and correlation. Specifically, we …

Modeling realized covariance matrices: a class of Hadamard exponential models

L Bauwens, E Otranto - Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2023 - academic.oup.com
Time series of realized covariance matrices can be modeled in the conditional
autoregressive Wishart model family via dynamic correlations or via dynamic covariances …

Exploiting intraday decompositions in realized volatility forecasting: A forecast reconciliation approach

M Caporin, T Di Fonzo… - Journal of Financial …, 2024 - academic.oup.com
We address the construction of Realized Variance (RV) forecasts by exploiting the
hierarchical structure implicit in available decompositions of RV. We propose a post …

Variance Decomposition and Cryptocurrency Return Prediction

SS Lee, M Wang - Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2024 - cambridge.org
This paper examines how realized variances predict cryptocurrency returns in the cross-
section using intraday data. We find that cryptocurrencies with higher variances exhibit lower …

[PDF][PDF] Forecasting and managing correlation risks

T Bollerslev, SZ Li, Y Tang - … Risks: Bollerslev, Tim| uLi, Sophia Zhengzi …, 2022 - aeaweb.org
Forecasting and Managing Correlation Risks Page 1 Overview Data and Variables Estimation
Methodology Out-of-sample Forecast Performance Applications Robustness Conclusion …

Granular betas and risk premium functions

T Bollerslev, AJ Patton… - Available at SSRN …, 2022 - papers.ssrn.com
We propose new refined measures of the local covariation between the return on an asset
and a risk factor. Our proposed" granular betas" generalize the notion of up-and down-side …

Dynamic partial (co) variance forecasting model

Z Chen, Y Zhou - Quantitative Finance, 2024 - Taylor & Francis
In this study, we propose a dynamic partial (co) variance forecasting model (DPCFM) by
introducing a dynamic model averaging (DMA) approach into a partial (co) variance …