Developing, testing, and communicating earthquake forecasts: Current practices and future directions
L Mizrahi, I Dallo, NJ van der Elst… - Reviews of …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible,
earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes …
earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes …
Unravelling the complexity of Apenninic extensional fault systems: A review of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (Central Apennines, Italy)
L Chiaraluce - Journal of Structural Geology, 2012 - Elsevier
The 2009 L'Aquila sequence activated a normal fault system 50 km long in the Central
Apennines, composed of two main NW-trending faults 12–16 km long: the main high angle …
Apennines, composed of two main NW-trending faults 12–16 km long: the main high angle …
Radiography of a normal fault system by 64,000 high‐precision earthquake locations: The 2009 L'Aquila (central Italy) case study
We studied the anatomy of the fault system where the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (MW 6.1)
nucleated by means of~ 64 k high‐precision earthquake locations spanning 1 year. Data …
nucleated by means of~ 64 k high‐precision earthquake locations spanning 1 year. Data …
The establishment of an operational earthquake forecasting system in Italy
W Marzocchi, AM Lombardi… - Seismological …, 2014 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
On 6 April 2009, an Mw 6.2 earthquake struck beneath the city of L'Aquila, central Italy. The
shock created significant damage and caused more than 300 deaths in the city and …
shock created significant damage and caused more than 300 deaths in the city and …
Next-day earthquake forecasts for the Japan region generated by the ETAS model
J Zhuang - Earth, planets and space, 2011 - Springer
This paper gives the technical solutions of implementing the space-time epidemic-type
aftershock sequence (ETAS) model for short-term (1-day) earthquake forecasts for the all …
aftershock sequence (ETAS) model for short-term (1-day) earthquake forecasts for the all …
Improving physics‐based aftershock forecasts during the 2016–2017 Central Italy Earthquake Cascade
Abstract The 2016–2017 Central Apennines earthquake sequence is a recent example of
how damages from subsequent aftershocks can exceed those caused by the initial …
how damages from subsequent aftershocks can exceed those caused by the initial …
Estimating ETAS: The effects of truncation, missing data, and model assumptions
Abstract The Epidemic‐Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to describe
the occurrence of earthquakes in space and time, but there has been little discussion …
the occurrence of earthquakes in space and time, but there has been little discussion …
Significant improvements of the space-time ETAS model for forecasting of accurate baseline seismicity
Y Ogata - Earth, planets and space, 2011 - Springer
The space-time version of the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is based on
the empirical laws for aftershocks, and constructed with a certain space-time function for …
the empirical laws for aftershocks, and constructed with a certain space-time function for …
Prospective CSEP evaluation of 1‐day, 3‐month, and 5‐yr earthquake forecasts for Italy
M Taroni, W Marzocchi… - Seismological …, 2018 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
In 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched
three experiments to forecast the distribution of earthquakes in Italy in the subsequent 5 yrs …
three experiments to forecast the distribution of earthquakes in Italy in the subsequent 5 yrs …
A retrospective comparative forecast test on the 1992 Landers sequence
We perform a retrospective forecast experiment on the 1992 Landers sequence comparing
the predictive power of commonly used model frameworks for short‐term earthquake …
the predictive power of commonly used model frameworks for short‐term earthquake …