Developing, testing, and communicating earthquake forecasts: Current practices and future directions

L Mizrahi, I Dallo, NJ van der Elst… - Reviews of …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible,
earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes …

Unravelling the complexity of Apenninic extensional fault systems: A review of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (Central Apennines, Italy)

L Chiaraluce - Journal of Structural Geology, 2012 - Elsevier
The 2009 L'Aquila sequence activated a normal fault system 50 km long in the Central
Apennines, composed of two main NW-trending faults 12–16 km long: the main high angle …

Radiography of a normal fault system by 64,000 high‐precision earthquake locations: The 2009 L'Aquila (central Italy) case study

L Valoroso, L Chiaraluce, D Piccinini… - Journal of …, 2013 - Wiley Online Library
We studied the anatomy of the fault system where the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (MW 6.1)
nucleated by means of~ 64 k high‐precision earthquake locations spanning 1 year. Data …

The establishment of an operational earthquake forecasting system in Italy

W Marzocchi, AM Lombardi… - Seismological …, 2014 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
On 6 April 2009, an Mw 6.2 earthquake struck beneath the city of L'Aquila, central Italy. The
shock created significant damage and caused more than 300 deaths in the city and …

Next-day earthquake forecasts for the Japan region generated by the ETAS model

J Zhuang - Earth, planets and space, 2011 - Springer
This paper gives the technical solutions of implementing the space-time epidemic-type
aftershock sequence (ETAS) model for short-term (1-day) earthquake forecasts for the all …

Improving physics‐based aftershock forecasts during the 2016–2017 Central Italy Earthquake Cascade

S Mancini, M Segou, MJ Werner… - Journal of Geophysical …, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract The 2016–2017 Central Apennines earthquake sequence is a recent example of
how damages from subsequent aftershocks can exceed those caused by the initial …

Estimating ETAS: The effects of truncation, missing data, and model assumptions

S Seif, A Mignan, JD Zechar… - … Research: Solid Earth, 2017 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract The Epidemic‐Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to describe
the occurrence of earthquakes in space and time, but there has been little discussion …

Significant improvements of the space-time ETAS model for forecasting of accurate baseline seismicity

Y Ogata - Earth, planets and space, 2011 - Springer
The space-time version of the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is based on
the empirical laws for aftershocks, and constructed with a certain space-time function for …

Prospective CSEP evaluation of 1‐day, 3‐month, and 5‐yr earthquake forecasts for Italy

M Taroni, W Marzocchi… - Seismological …, 2018 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
In 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched
three experiments to forecast the distribution of earthquakes in Italy in the subsequent 5 yrs …

A retrospective comparative forecast test on the 1992 Landers sequence

J Woessner, S Hainzl, W Marzocchi… - Journal of …, 2011 - Wiley Online Library
We perform a retrospective forecast experiment on the 1992 Landers sequence comparing
the predictive power of commonly used model frameworks for short‐term earthquake …