Overprecision in judgment is both the most durable and the least understood form of
overconfidence. This chapter reviews the evidence on overprecision, highlighting its …

Overconfidence occurs if we excessively overestimate the accuracy of judgments,
inferences, or predictions. While overconfidence may have beneficial functions–a …

The authors present a reconciliation of 3 distinct ways in which the research literature has
defined overconfidence:(a) overestimation of one's actual performance,(b) overplacement of …

This paper studies, theoretically and empirically, the role of overconfidence in political
behavior. Our model of overconfidence in beliefs predicts that overconfidence leads to …

Errors in estimating and forecasting often result from the failure to collect and consider
enough relevant information. We examine whether attributes associated with persistence in …

Judges were asked to make numerical estimates (eg," In what year was the first flight of a hot
air balloon?"). Judges provided high and low estimates such that they were X% sure that the …

A common social comparison bias—the better-than-average-effect—is frequently described
as psychologically equivalent to the individual-level judgment bias known as …

Two robust phenomena in research on confidence in one's general knowledge are the
overconfidence phenomenon and the hard-easy effect. In this article, the authors propose …

Overconfidence is an important bias related to the ability to recognize the limits of one's
knowledge. The present study examines overconfidence in predictions of job performance …

Learning about conceptually-rich domains with open-ended computer-based learning
environments (CBLEs) such as hypermedia involves a complex set of interactions among …