The predictability of the extratropical stratosphere on monthly time‐scales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts

OP Tripathi, M Baldwin… - Quarterly Journal of …, 2015 - Wiley Online Library
Extreme variability of the winter‐and spring‐time stratospheric polar vortex has been shown
to affect extratropical tropospheric weather. Therefore, reducing stratospheric forecast error …

The remarkably strong Arctic stratospheric polar vortex of winter 2020: Links to record‐breaking Arctic oscillation and ozone loss

ZD Lawrence, J Perlwitz, AH Butler… - Journal of …, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract The Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar winter stratosphere of 2019/2020 featured an
exceptionally strong and cold stratospheric polar vortex. Wave activity from the troposphere …

The different stratospheric influence on cold-extremes in Eurasia and North America

M Kretschmer, J Cohen, V Matthias, J Runge… - npj Climate and …, 2018 - nature.com
The stratospheric polar vortex can influence the tropospheric circulation and thereby winter
weather in the mid-latitudes. Weak vortex states, often associated with sudden stratospheric …

The stratospheric pathway for Arctic impacts on midlatitude climate

T Nakamura, K Yamazaki, K Iwamoto… - Geophysical …, 2016 - Wiley Online Library
Recent evidence from both observations and model simulations suggests that an Arctic sea
ice reduction tends to cause a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) phase with severe winter …

Long-range prediction and the stratosphere

AA Scaife, MP Baldwin, AH Butler… - Atmospheric …, 2022 - acp.copernicus.org
Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of
stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere–troposphere …

Absorbing and reflecting sudden stratospheric warming events and their relationship with tropospheric circulation

K Kodera, H Mukougawa, P Maury… - Journal of …, 2016 - Wiley Online Library
Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events have received increased attention since their
impacts on the troposphere became evident recently. Studies of SSW usually focus on polar …

Impact of the MJO on the boreal winter extratropical circulation

CI Garfinkel, JJ Benedict… - Geophysical Research …, 2014 - Wiley Online Library
The effect of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime
stratospheric polar vortex is evaluated using a meteorological reanalysis data set and a …

Statistical characterization of Arctic polar-night jet oscillation events

P Hitchcock, TG Shepherd, GL Manney - Journal of Climate, 2013 - journals.ametsoc.org
A novel diagnostic tool is presented, based on polar-cap temperature anomalies, for
visualizing daily variability of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex over multiple decades. This …

Stratospheric wave reflection events modulate North American weather regimes and cold spells

G Messori, M Kretschmer, SH Lee… - Weather and Climate …, 2022 - wcd.copernicus.org
The Arctic stratospheric polar vortex is an important driver of mid-latitude cold spells. One
proposed coupling mechanism between the stratospheric polar vortex and the troposphere …

[HTML][HTML] Characteristics, evolution, and formation of cold air outbreaks in the Great Plains of the United States

OT Millin, JC Furtado, JB Basara - Journal of Climate, 2022 - journals.ametsoc.org
Wintertime cold air outbreaks (CAOs) in the Great Plains of the United States have
significant socioeconomic, environmental, and infrastructural impacts; the events of …