Collective intelligence has emerged as a powerful mechanism to boost decision accuracy
across many domains, such as geopolitical forecasting, investment, and medical …

The quarterly financial statement, or Form 10-Q, is one of the most frequently required filings
for US public companies to disclose financial and other important business information. Due …

Aggregating predictions from multiple judges often yields more accurate predictions than
relying on a single judge, which is known as the wisdom-of-the-crowd effect. However, a …

Forecasters predicting the chances of a future event may disagree because of differing
evidence or noise. To harness the collective evidence of the crowd, we propose a Bayesian …

Skeptics see long‐range geopolitical forecasting as quixotic. A more nuanced view is that
although predictability tends to decline over time, its rate of descent is variable. The current …

The task of this article is to harness the wisdom of a crowd without calibration. We assume
each expert to form predictions by linearly combining various information cues inspired by …