A machine learning approach to volatility forecasting

K Christensen, M Siggaard… - Journal of Financial …, 2023 - academic.oup.com
We inspect how accurate machine learning (ML) is at forecasting realized variance of the
Dow Jones Industrial Average index constituents. We compare several ML algorithms …

Oil futures volatility predictability: New evidence based on machine learning models

X Lu, F Ma, J Xu, Z Zhang - International Review of Financial Analysis, 2022 - Elsevier
This paper comprehensively examines the connection between oil futures volatility and the
financial market based on a model-rich environment, which contains traditional predicting …

Volatility forecasting with machine learning and intraday commonality

C Zhang, Y Zhang, M Cucuringu… - Journal of Financial …, 2024 - academic.oup.com
We apply machine learning models to forecast intraday realized volatility (RV), by exploiting
commonality in intraday volatility via pooling stock data together, and by incorporating a …

Deep order flow imbalance: Extracting alpha at multiple horizons from the limit order book

PN Kolm, J Turiel, N Westray - Mathematical Finance, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
We employ deep learning in forecasting high‐frequency returns at multiple horizons for 115
stocks traded on Nasdaq using order book information at the most granular level. While raw …

Do industries predict stock market volatility? Evidence from machine learning models

Z Niu, R Demirer, MT Suleman, H Zhang… - Journal of International …, 2024 - Elsevier
In a novel take on the gradual information diffusion hypothesis of Hong et al.(2007), we
examine the predictive role of industries over aggregate stock market volatility. Using high …

Multivariate realized volatility forecasting with graph neural network

Q Chen, CY Robert - Proceedings of the third acm international …, 2022 - dl.acm.org
Financial economics and econometrics literature demonstrate that the limit order book data
is useful in predicting short-term volatility in stock markets. In this paper, we are interested in …

More is better? The impact of predictor choice on the INE oil futures volatility forecasting

T Fu, D Huang, L Feng, X Tang - Energy Economics, 2024 - Elsevier
This paper aims to address the predictor choice issue in forecasting volatility of INE oil
futures by a comprehensive comparative study with a large number of predictive variables …

On the universality of the volatility formation process: when machine learning and rough volatility agree

M Rosenbaum, J Zhang - arXiv preprint arXiv:2206.14114, 2022 - arxiv.org
We train an LSTM network based on a pooled dataset made of hundreds of liquid stocks
aiming to forecast the next daily realized volatility for all stocks. Showing the consistent …

Realised volatility forecasting: Machine learning via financial word embedding

E Rahimikia, S Zohren, SH Poon - arXiv preprint arXiv:2108.00480, 2021 - arxiv.org
This study develops FinText, a financial word embedding compiled from 15 years of
business news archives. The results show that FinText produces substantially more accurate …

Harnet: A convolutional neural network for realized volatility forecasting

R Reisenhofer, X Bayer, N Hautsch - arXiv preprint arXiv:2205.07719, 2022 - arxiv.org
Despite the impressive success of deep neural networks in many application areas, neural
network models have so far not been widely adopted in the context of volatility forecasting. In …