A survey of human judgement and quantitative forecasting methods
M Zellner, AE Abbas, DV Budescu… - Royal Society open …, 2021 - royalsocietypublishing.org
This paper's top-level goal is to provide an overview of research conducted in the many
academic domains concerned with forecasting. By providing a summary encompassing …
academic domains concerned with forecasting. By providing a summary encompassing …
[图书][B] Noise: A flaw in human judgment
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast
and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad …
and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad …
Three challenges for AI-assisted decision-making
M Steyvers, A Kumar - Perspectives on Psychological …, 2024 - journals.sagepub.com
Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to improve human decision-making by providing
decision recommendations and problem-relevant information to assist human decision …
decision recommendations and problem-relevant information to assist human decision …
Bayesian modeling of human–AI complementarity
Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning models are being increasingly deployed in
real-world applications. In many of these applications, there is strong motivation to develop …
real-world applications. In many of these applications, there is strong motivation to develop …
The strengths and weaknesses of crowds to address global problems
SB Broomell, CP Davis-Stober - … on Psychological Science, 2024 - journals.sagepub.com
Global climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the spread of misinformation on social
media are just a handful of highly consequential problems affecting society. We argue that …
media are just a handful of highly consequential problems affecting society. We argue that …
[图书][B] Taming uncertainty
An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the
real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless …
real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless …
[图书][B] Le crowdfunding: fondements et pratiques
V Bessière, É Stéphany - 2017 - books.google.com
Page 1 Véronique Bessière FONDEMENTS ET PRATIQUES Nouvelle édition mise à jour (cadre
légal et pratique) et enrichie Éric Stéphany LE CROWDFUNDING 2e édition Page 2 Page 3 …
légal et pratique) et enrichie Éric Stéphany LE CROWDFUNDING 2e édition Page 2 Page 3 …
The wisdom of crowds and transfer market values
D Coates, P Parshakov - European Journal of Operational Research, 2022 - Elsevier
Crowd-sourcing of information has become popular in the years since James Surowiecki
published The Wisdom of Crowds: why the many are smarter than the few and how …
published The Wisdom of Crowds: why the many are smarter than the few and how …
A heuristic for combining correlated experts when there are few data
D Soule, Y Grushka-Cockayne… - Management …, 2024 - pubsonline.informs.org
It is intuitive and theoretically sound to combine experts' forecasts based on their proven
skills, while accounting for correlation among their forecast submissions. Simpler …
skills, while accounting for correlation among their forecast submissions. Simpler …
Combining human predictions with model probabilities via confusion matrices and calibration
G Kerrigan, P Smyth… - Advances in Neural …, 2021 - proceedings.neurips.cc
An increasingly common use case for machine learning models is augmenting the abilities
of human decision makers. For classification tasks where neither the human nor model are …
of human decision makers. For classification tasks where neither the human nor model are …