Forecasting with option-implied information

P Christoffersen, K Jacobs, BY Chang - Handbook of economic forecasting, 2013 - Elsevier
This chapter surveys the methods available for extracting information from option prices that
can be used in forecasting. We consider option-implied volatilities, skewness, kurtosis, and …

Capturing option anomalies with a variance-dependent pricing kernel

P Christoffersen, S Heston… - The Review of Financial …, 2013 - academic.oup.com
We develop a GARCH option model with a new pricing kernel allowing for a variance
premium. While the pricing kernel is monotonic in the stock return and in variance, its …

Probability weighting functions implied in options prices

V Polkovnichenko, F Zhao - Journal of Financial Economics, 2013 - Elsevier
The empirical pricing kernels estimated from index options are non-monotone (Rosenberg
and Engle, 2002; Bakshi, Madan, and Panayotov, 2010) and the corresponding risk …

A data-driven framework for consistent financial valuation and risk measurement

Z Cui, JL Kirkby, D Nguyen - European Journal of Operational Research, 2021 - Elsevier
In this paper, we propose a general data-driven framework that unifies the valuation and risk
measurement of financial derivatives, which is especially useful in markets with thinly-traded …

Retrieving risk neutral densities from European option prices based on the principle of maximum entropy

LS Rompolis - Journal of Empirical Finance, 2010 - Elsevier
This paper suggests a new method of implementing the principle of maximum entropy to
retrieve the risk neutral density of future stock, or any other asset, returns from European call …

Impact of FFC distributed generations in a DNR in the presence of renewable and load uncertainties by mixed‐discrete particle swarm‐based point estimation method

S Barik, D Das - IET Renewable Power Generation, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
This study presents the uncertainty analysis of a distribution network (DNR) caused by unit
power output control (UPC) distributed generations (DGs)(solar, wind) and load demand by …

Option pricing with maximum entropy densities: The inclusion of higher‐order moments

OM Ardakani - Journal of Futures Markets, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
Entropy pricing applies notions of information theory to derive the theoretical value of
options. This paper employs the maximum entropy (ME) formulation of option pricing, given …

Volatility risk premium implications of GARCH option pricing models

I Papantonis - Economic modelling, 2016 - Elsevier
In this paper we explore important implications of capturing volatility risk premium (VRP)
within a parametric GARCH setting. We study the transmission mechanism of shocks from …

Extracting market information from equity options with exponential Lévy processes

FJ Fabozzi, A Leccadito, RS Tunaru - Journal of Economic Dynamics and …, 2014 - Elsevier
Lévy processes have been successfully applied in the modeling of financial assets. Useful
information such as implied volatility, skewness, and risk-preferences can be derived from …

A non-structural investigation of VIX risk neutral density

A Barletta, PS de Magistris, F Violante - Journal of Banking & Finance, 2019 - Elsevier
We propose a non-structural method to retrieve the risk-neutral density (RND) implied by
options on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). The methodology is based on orthogonal …