Commodity terms of trade shocks and real effective exchange rate dynamics in Africa's commodity-exporting countries

Y Kassouri, H Altıntaş - Resources Policy, 2020 - Elsevier
Motivated by the absence of conclusive guidance from the current literature, this study
revisits the effects of terms of trade shocks on real effective exchange rates (RER) across …

Forecasting base metal prices with the Chilean exchange rate

PP Brown, N Hardy - Resources Policy, 2019 - Elsevier
In this paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of
the London Metal Exchange Index and of the six primary non-ferrous metals that are part of …

Forecasting fuel prices with the Chilean exchange rate: Going beyond the commodity currency hypothesis

P Pincheira-Brown, A Bentancor, N Hardy, N Jarsun - Energy Economics, 2022 - Elsevier
In this paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of
oil and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. We show …

[HTML][HTML] Cross market predictions for commodity prices

S Ding, Y Zhang - Economic Modelling, 2020 - Elsevier
This paper shows that commodity prices can be predicted from cross-market information by
establishing long-run cross-market commodity price equilibrium models, which are …

[HTML][HTML] Efecto de la incertidumbre en las organizaciones del mercado accionario: una herramienta para la toma de decisiones y la inteligencia organizacional

JM Candelo-Viáfara, CH Gonzáles-Campo - Estudios Gerenciales, 2022 - scielo.org.co
Este artículo tiene como objetivo medir el efecto de la incertidumbre en las organizaciones
del mercado accionario colombiano, usando información financiera como los precios de las …

Giving and receiving: Exploring the predictive causality between oil prices and exchange rates

JE Gomez‐Gonzalez, J Hirs‐Garzon… - International …, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
We study the dynamic connectedness and predictive causality between oil prices and
exchange rates. Our sample includes six important oil‐producing and six net importing …

“Watch your tone!”: Forecasting mining industry commodity prices with financial report tone

N Hardy, T Ferreira, MJ Quinteros, NS Magner - Resources Policy, 2023 - Elsevier
This paper presents robust evidence indicating that the tone of financial reports from the US
mining industry firms can predict certain mining commodity returns. We assess this …

Forecasting aluminum prices with commodity currencies

P Pincheira, N Hardy - Resources Policy, 2021 - Elsevier
In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have
the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with …

Terms of trade or market power? Further evidence from dynamic spillovers in return and volatility between Malaysian crude palm oil and foreign exchange markets

YH Go, WY Lau - The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2024 - Elsevier
This study examines whether the Malaysian ringgit (MYR) provides terms of trade or market
power for crude palm oil (CPO). We consider MYR exchange rates against three currencies …

Forecasting bubbles with mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive models

A Hecq, E Voisin - Econometrics and Statistics, 2021 - Elsevier
Density forecasts of locally explosive processes are investigated using mixed causal-
noncausal models, namely time series models with both lag and lead components. In the …