Future global climate: scenario-based projections and near-term information

JY Lee, J Marotzke, G Bala, L Cao, S Corti… - Climate change 2021 …, 2021 - cambridge.org
This chapter assesses simulations of future global climate change, spanning time horizons
from the near term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060), and long term (2081–2100) out to …

[HTML][HTML] Climate model projections from the scenario model intercomparison project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

C Tebaldi, K Debeire, V Eyring, E Fischer… - Earth System …, 2021 - esd.copernicus.org
Abstract The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and
coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven …

[HTML][HTML] Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability

KB Rodgers, SS Lee, N Rosenbloom… - Earth System …, 2021 - esd.copernicus.org
While climate change mitigation targets necessarily concern maximum mean state changes,
understanding impacts and developing adaptation strategies will be largely contingent on …

[HTML][HTML] Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6

F Lehner, C Deser, N Maher, J Marotzke… - Earth System …, 2020 - esd.copernicus.org
Partitioning uncertainty in projections of future climate change into contributions from
internal variability, model response uncertainty and emissions scenarios has historically …

The importance of internal climate variability in climate impact projections

K Schwarzwald, N Lenssen - Proceedings of the National …, 2022 - National Acad Sciences
Uncertainty in climate projections is driven by three components: scenario uncertainty,
intermodel uncertainty, and internal variability. Although socioeconomic climate impact …

Large ensemble climate model simulations: introduction, overview, and future prospects for utilising multiple types of large ensemble

N Maher, S Milinski, R Ludwig - Earth System Dynamics, 2021 - esd.copernicus.org
Single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) are valuable tools that can be used
to investigate the climate system. SMILEs allow scientists to quantify and separate the …

Applications of large deviation theory in geophysical fluid dynamics and climate science

VM Gálfi, V Lucarini, F Ragone, J Wouters - La Rivista del Nuovo Cimento, 2021 - Springer
The climate is a complex, chaotic system with many degrees of freedom. Attaining a deeper
level of understanding of climate dynamics is an urgent scientific challenge, given the …

Overview of the advances in understanding chaos in low-dimensional dynamical systems subjected to parameter drift: Parallel dynamical evolutions and” climate …

D Jánosi, T Tél - Physics Reports, 2024 - Elsevier
This paper offers a review while also studying yet unexplored features of the area of chaotic
systems subjected to parameter drift of non-negligible rate, an area where the methods of …

[HTML][HTML] Isolating the evolving contributions of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases: A new CESM1 large ensemble community resource

C Deser, AS Phillips, IR Simpson… - Journal of …, 2020 - journals.ametsoc.org
Isolating the Evolving Contributions of Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases: A New
CESM1 Large Ensemble Community Resource in: Journal of Climate Volume 33 Issue 18 …

Changes in precipitation variability across time scales in multiple global climate model large ensembles

RR Wood, F Lehner, AG Pendergrass… - Environmental …, 2021 - iopscience.iop.org
Anthropogenic changes in the variability of precipitation stand to impact both natural and
human systems in profound ways. Precipitation variability encompasses not only extremes …