Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The
uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and …

Forecast combinations have flourished remarkably in the forecasting community and, in
recent years, have become part of mainstream forecasting research and activities …

The M4 Competition follows on from the three previous M competitions, the purpose of which
was to learn from empirical evidence both how to improve the forecasting accuracy and how …

Among various time series (TS) forecasting methods, ensemble forecast is extensively
acknowledged as a promising ensemble approach achieving great success in research and …

In this study, we present the results of the M5 “Accuracy” competition, which was the first of
two parallel challenges in the latest M competition with the aim of advancing the theory and …

The M5 competition follows the previous four M competitions, whose purpose is to learn from
empirical evidence how to improve forecasting performance and advance the theory and …

In humans and other gregarious animals, collective decision-making is a robust behavioural
feature of groups. Pooling individual information is also fundamental for modern societies, in …

Collections of time series formed via aggregation are prevalent in many fields. These are
commonly referred to as hierarchical time series and may be constructed cross-sectionally …

The method of model averaging has become an important tool to deal with model
uncertainty, for example in situations where a large amount of different theories exist, as are …

In ecology, the true causal structure for a given problem is often not known, and several
plausible models and thus model predictions exist. It has been claimed that using weighted …