A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave
Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19
pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve …
pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve …
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United
States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific …
States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific …
[HTML][HTML] Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemics
Mathematical modelling and statistical inference provide a framework to evaluate different
non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions for the control of epidemics that has …
non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions for the control of epidemics that has …
Improving local prevalence estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infections using a causal debiasing framework
Global and national surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology is mostly based on targeted
schemes focused on testing individuals with symptoms. These tested groups are often …
schemes focused on testing individuals with symptoms. These tested groups are often …
Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational
awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent …
awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent …
[HTML][HTML] Modeling waning and boosting of COVID-19 in Canada with vaccination
Abstract SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19, has caused devastating health and
economic impacts around the globe since its appearance in late 2019. The advent of …
economic impacts around the globe since its appearance in late 2019. The advent of …
[HTML][HTML] Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and the vaccination campaign in Italy by the SUIHTER model
N Parolini, G Ardenghi, A Quarteroni - Infectious Disease Modelling, 2022 - Elsevier
Several epidemiological models have been proposed to study the evolution of COVID-19
pandemic. In this paper, we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model, to analyse the …
pandemic. In this paper, we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model, to analyse the …
Exploring surveillance data biases when estimating the reproduction number: with insights into subpopulation transmission of COVID-19 in England
The time-varying reproduction number (Rt: the average number of secondary infections
caused by each infected person) may be used to assess changes in transmission potential …
caused by each infected person) may be used to assess changes in transmission potential …
Comparing human and model-based forecasts of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland
Forecasts based on epidemiological modelling have played an important role in shaping
public policy throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. This modelling combines knowledge …
public policy throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. This modelling combines knowledge …
Comparative assessment of methods for short-term forecasts of COVID-19 hospital admissions in England at the local level
Background Forecasting healthcare demand is essential in epidemic settings, both to inform
situational awareness and facilitate resource planning. Ideally, forecasts should be robust …
situational awareness and facilitate resource planning. Ideally, forecasts should be robust …