The availability of mineral raw materials and their secure and sustainable supply is essential
for the German economy. As a major industrial nation with resource-intensive processing …

We model permanent and transitory changes of the predictive density of US GDP growth. A
substantial increase in downside risk to US economic growth emerges over the last 30 …

We find that deep contractions have highly persistent scarring effects, depressing the level of
GDP at least a decade hence. Drawing on a panel of 24 advanced and emerging …

An increase in uncertainty is not contractionary per se. What is contractionary is a widening
of the left tail of the GDP growth forecast distribution, the downside uncertainty. On the …

We study the network origins of business cycle asymmetries using cross-country and
administrative firm-level data. At the country level, we document that countries with a larger …

We employ a mixed‐frequency quantile regression approach to model the time‐varying
conditional distribution of the US real GDP growth rate. We show that monthly information on …

Both financial and macroeconomic conditions matter for downside risks to the economic
outlook. In this paper, we show that the deterioration of the financial and real sides …

We construct a general equilibrium model in which income inequality results in insufficient
aggregate demand, deflation pressure, and excessive credit growth by allocating income to …

Business cycles are costlier and stabilization policies could be more beneficial than widely
thought. This paper introduces a new test to show that all business cycles are asymmetric …

We develop a data-rich measure of expected macroeconomic skewness in the US economy.
Expected macroeconomic skewness is strongly procyclical, mainly reflects the cyclicality in …