We study the conditional distribution of GDP growth as a function of economic and financial
conditions. Deteriorating financial conditions are associated with an increase in the …

Abstract The Great Recession seems to be a natural experiment for economic analysis, in
that it has shown the inadequacy of the predominant theoretical framework-the New …

This paper examines the drivers of fluctuations in global inflation, defined as a common
factor across monthly headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation in G7 countries, over the …

In this chapter, we discuss a number of challenges for structural macroeconomic models in
the light of the Great Recession and its aftermath. It shows that a benchmark DSGE model …

We propose a new approach to estimating central bank preferences, including the implicit
inflation target, that requires no priors on the underlying macroeconomic structure nor …

Many central banks have relied on a range of policy tools, including foreign exchange
intervention (FXI) and capital flow management tools (CFMs), to mitigate the effects of …

How much do term premiums matter for explaining the dynamics of the term structure of
interest rates? A lot. We characterize the expected path of nominal and real short-rates as …

This paper discusses the usefulness of DSGE models in monetary and fiscal policy analysis.
While the recent crisis has exposed some weaknesses in these models, I argue that DSGE …

We build a three-country DSGE model to address the economic fallout from the COVID-19
shock. First, three different scenarios–optimistic, baseline and pessimistic–are drawn where …

We develop a behavioral DSGE model which addresses the forward guidance puzzle. We
then use the estimated model to assess if unconventional monetary policy tools such as …