This chapter summarizes recent literature on asymptotic inference about forecasts. Both
analytical and simulation based methods are discussed. The emphasis is on techniques …

Forecast evaluation often compares a parsimonious null model to a larger model that nests
the null model. Under the null that the parsimonious model generates the data, the larger …

Two daily, real-time, real-activity indexes are constructed for the United States, euro area,
United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan:(i) a surprise index summarizing recent economic data …

Topical and timely, this book offers an economically informed constitutional analysis on
European responses to the crisis. It discusses the longer-term proposals on the table …

We examine the asymmetry in the predictive power of investor sentiment in the cross-section
of stock returns across economic expansion and recession states. We test the implication of …

We construct a monthly real-time dataset consisting of vintages for 1991.1–2010.12 that is
suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models. We …

When a boom ends, the downturn is generally sharp and short. When growth resumes, the
boom is more gradual. Our explanation rests on learning about productivity. When agents …

In the past ten years, researchers have explored the impact of data revisions in many
different contexts. Researchers have examined the properties of data revisions, how …

A synthesis of the authors' groundbreaking econometric research on automatic model
selection, which uses powerful computational algorithms and theory evaluation. Economic …

We set out a model to compute short‐term forecasts of the euro area GDP growth in real
time. To allow for forecast evaluation, we construct a real‐time dataset that changes for each …